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People are So Predictable, Valentine’s Day Edition

“Stacked” search trends from the Sentieo platform have been popular with users to assess both secular growth and seasonality. Over the last few months, we provided some ideas to both The Financial Times, which looked at the return to work driving botox searches, and Vox, for their annual year in charts review, which looked at the increase in crypto interest, oat milk, and, of course, botox. Among the post-pandemic losers, they highlighted searches for stocks and sourdough.

Some of these ideas came from our very popular white paper, 72 Consumer Trends for 2022, but we have been using stacked trends in our long-running blog series on pumpkin spice everything, where we chronicled sheer absurdities like pumpkin-spice spam and pumpkin-spice ramen noodles. We prematurely declared that pumpkin spice is over in 2019, only to admit defeat in 2021.

So how do stacked trends play into Valentine’s Day? We will show you three searches, and you can sequence what happens at scale. We spotted the Valentine’s Day seasonality for certain terms while doing work for our 72 Consumer Trends paper

Roses 

We can see that searches for roses exhibit a very clear seasonal spike in the week of Valentine’s Day. The secondary bump in May is around the US Mother’s Day, celebrated on the second Sunday in May. Rose price spikes around that time are a favorite topic for economists. Even the World Economic Forum has weighed in, presumably after their famous Davos conference.

Plan B

Plan B (a brand name for levonorgestrel) is an emergency oral contraceptive pill. We also see the Valentine’s Day seasonality there as well. The big December 2021 spike was linked, in our view, to a controversial Texas reproductive law. What is more interesting is that the spike follows the roses search by one week: for example, in 2021, roses spiked during the week of February 7th, while Plan B searches spiked during the week of February 14th.

Pregnancy Test 

Closing the loop, searches for pregnancy tests spike dramatically in the 2nd half of March. We are not going to count the weeks for you but you get the idea. (Watch us going over the Fundamental Xray Dashboard loaded with 10 years of financials for pregnancy test maker Church & Dwight here.)

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