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Mid-Year Review in Charts 2022

We just released our 6-minute mid-year 2022 review, going over 17 charts discussing macroeconomic indicators, asset classes and sector returns, transcript trends, and more.


1. VIX Index: We have entered a high-volatility market regime

VIX index mid-year 2022 review
Risk Dash: VIX Index

2. Credit spreads are shooting up

Credit spreads are shooting up mid-year 2022 review
Risk Dash: CCC/Below OAS Spread

3. Mortgage rates have increased considerably in the last 6-12 months, affecting several sectors (showing US 30-year fixed rate mortgage)

Mortgage rates have increased considerably in the last 6-12 months, affecting several sectors mid-year 2022 review
US 30-year fixed mortgage rate

4. US consumer sentiment is extremely poor

US consumer sentiment is extremely poor mid-year 2022 review
Consumer Sentiment

5. Inflation (and transcripts with mentions of inflation) are at very high levels

Inflation (and transcripts with mentions of inflation) are at very high levels mid-year 2022 review
US CPI-U YoY % Change vs transcripts

6. All broad equity indices are down double-digits YTD: SPY, EFA, EEM, QQQ

YTD Returns mid-year 2022 review
YTD Returns

7. Unusual, given the move in equities, fixed income is down across instruments: AGG, LQD, HYG, SRLN and more

Unusual, given the move in equities, fixed income is down across instruments mid-year 2022 review
Fixed Income

8. Within the US equity sectors, XLE trounces all YTD

Within the US equity sectors, XLE trounces all YTD mid-year 2022 review
Major US Sector ETFs performance

9. “High-duration” sectors like $XBI Biotechs, FINX Fintech, SPAK SPACs have done much worse than the broad indices YTD

“High-duration” sectors like $XBI Biotechs, FINX Fintech, SPAK SPACs have done much worse than the broad indices YTD mid-year 2022 review
YTD Returns

10. SaaS valuations (looking at the average CLOU holding EV/NTM Sales) have been cut in half YTD

SaaS valuations (looking at the average CLOU holding EV/NTM Sales) have been cut in half YTD mid-year 2022 review
EV/NTM Sales

11. Within energy, AMLP midstream has done worse versus the large-caps XLE, services OIH and E&P XOP

Within energy, AMLP midstream has done worse versus the large-caps XLE, services OIH and E&P XOP mid-year 2022 review
YTD returns

12. 183 US-listed Biotechs trade at negative enterprise value, in contrast to just 13 a year ago (XBI)

183 US-listed Biotechs trade at negative enterprise value, in contrast to just 13 a year ago mid-year 2022 review
US Listed Biotechs

13. The crypto winter is here, with large declines for Bitcoin and crypto-related equities

The crypto winter is here, with large declines for Bitcoin and crypto-related equities  mid-year 2022 review
BTC with YoY % change

14. Searches for stagflation, recession, and inflation have been moving up considerably

Searches for stagflation, recession, and inflation have been moving up considerably mid-year 2022 review
Searches worldwide

15. May 2022 had the second highest number of call transcripts mentioning “recession” in recent year, after May 2020

May 2022 had the second highest number of call transcripts mentioning “recession” in recent year, after May 2020 mid-year 2022 review
Transcripts with mentions

16. Perhaps some green shoots regarding inflation, current estimates for the revenues of the fertilizer companies point to 2022 being the high point, as we can see with the MOS revenue estimates by year

current estimates for the revenues of the fertilizer companies point to 2022 being the high point, as we can see with the MOS revenue estimates by year mid-year 2022 review
MOS revenue estimates

17. Similarly, the trend in XOM’s revenue estimates could indicate longer-term moderation in commodity prices

Similarly, the trend in XOM’s revenue estimates could indicate longer-term moderation in commodity prices mid-year 2022 review
XOM Revenue Estimates

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