Word On The Street: The Most Popular Transcript Keywords Of 2018, By Sector (An Annual Report By Sentieo)

Every year, thousands of pages of earnings call transcripts are generated and analyzed by equity analysts for signals about how individual companies — and the market — will perform. Our 2018 Word On The Street report demonstrates how Sentieo’s Document Search and Transcript Sentiment tools make that data more accessible to researchers.

How It Works

We used Sentieo’s natural language processing technology to scrape all the earnings transcripts published in the last year. We then processed and cleaned the data to distinguish the keywords in the text. We highlighted the words in each transcript that occurred on the greatest weighted average basis. We also eliminated filler words (like “or”, “and”, etc.) and conducted analytics on the cleaned data, like part-of-speech tagging (picking out nouns and verbs for semantic analysis) and sentiment analysis (quantifying the tone of the text).

Natural language processing powers the Sentieo platform’s document search and transcript sentiment functionality, putting its users at the forefront of financial research technology.

The Most Popular Transcript Keywords Of 2018, By Sector

Our 2018 report spans all sectors – from consumer discretionary to utilities. Here’s a sample page of our report on the Consumer Staples sector. For the full, free report, please download it here.

We want to hear your thoughts on this report, or any of our other whitepapers! Your feedback is welcome at hello@sentieo.com. For a free trial of Sentieo or to learn more, get in touch here.

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Introducing Sentieo’s Game-Changing Transcript Sentiment and Linguistic Analysis Features

Over the last year, the Sentieo team has been investing heavily in NLP & data science. We were very excited to release the Sentieo’s Transcript Intelligence Report, which is the first of many features built on a powerful new technology that lets us dissect documents and help you find insight.

There is signifcant amount of academic research that supports the idea that changes in sentiment among those in company management, as well as those working as analysts, do indeed have some relationship with stock returns.

Management is typically a negative predictor of stock returns. When management seems overly excited about the future, this may indicate that the stock will underperform. (See “Manager Sentiment and Stock Returns,” Journal of Financial Economics). On the other hand, when investor sentiment is low, subsequent returns are relatively high on a subset of stocks (high volatility stocks, unprofitable stocks, non-dividend-paying stocks, extreme-growth stocks, and distressed stocks), consistent with an initial underpricing of these stocks. (See “Investor Sentiment in the Stock Market,” Journal of Economic Perspectives).

Our Transcript Intelligence Report provides automatic analysis on how sentiment and keywords for a given company have changed across quarters. The analysis easily splits out Management Sentiment vs. Analyst Sentiment. Let’s use Netflix as our example.

First, we open up Sentieo Document Search and search for Netflix transcripts. We choose a transcript in the left hand navigation, and see a “View Linguistic Intelligence Report” button at the top of the document in the right hand pane.

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We’re taken to the full Transcript Analysis page, and can now dive into the analysis!

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Sentiment Scores

Sentiment scores are generated by tagging each word in the document as positive, negative, or neutral using a dictionary designed for financial documents and applying a formula to generate a score for each section. The formula for sentiment is below:

The number (typically a decimal value below 0.1) is a percentage that should be considered on a relative basis, rather than absolute.

Management Sentiment

The following chart shows sentiment for Management commentary and Q&A answers on eight quarters of earnings calls. Sentiment is calculated as positive word % of total words – negative word % of total words.

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Analyst Sentiment

The following chart shows sentiment for Analysts from the Q&A section of eight quarters of earnings calls. Sentiment is calculated as positive word % of total words – negative word % of total words.

 

 

 

Management-Analyst Sentiment Spread

The following chart shows the historical spread between Management and Analyst sentiment.

The spread between the two would suggest divergences in sentiment. For example, if the spread turned negative, then it is possible that management has turned less bullish while analysts have remained bullish, thereby signaling the potential for management to disappoint in future periods.

 

 

 

Conference Calls Sequential Comparison Word Cloud

The comparison word cloud shows the biggest changes in average keyword frequency between the 2018-04-16 conference call and the 2018-01-22 conference call for NFLX.*

 

 

 

 

Analyst vs Management: Keyword Differences

This is another comparison cloud showing the major average differences between management and analyst keywords on the 2018-04-16 conference call.

 

Management Top 15 Keywords

This table shows the top 15 keywords by frequency referenced in the past eight quarters of earnings calls. This provides a visual view at a glance into what is being discussed on the earnings calls over time.

 

 

 

Analysts Top 15 Keywords

 

 

 

Sign up for a free trial of Sentieo to get the sentiment report for Netflix and any other ticker you follow.

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crypto interest rates Sentieo

From Crypto to Interest Rates: A Sentiment Analysis of Q1 2018 Earnings Calls

Today we’ve published our second Sentiment Analysis Report, which summarizes last quarter’s top keyword searches and provides detailed sentiment analysis across all industries. We used Sentieo’s brand new Transcript Sentiment Analysis feature to analyze earnings call transcripts and discover which topics companies discussed the most last quarter, versus the same quarter in 2017. (See our previous report here).

We also compared the sentiment of management and analyst sections of transcripts, and graphed these data points so you can easily see trends or discrepancies between the two. We publish these reports every quarter, so you can stay updated on information that could impact your investment decisions this year. Here are some interesting themes that came up in our research:

 

Sentiment Analysis

Management versus investor sentiment is diverging.

Our sentiment analysis on transcripts shows that a decoupling is taking hold between the language from company management and market participants. Management continues to be upbeat during earning calls and presentations, while sell-side analysts and investors are taking a more cautious stance. To learn more, download the full, free report.

 

Keyword Mentions

Two substantial highlights from the various themes we cover in this report are related to cryptocurrency and Trump.

While mentions of crypto have continued to ramp up, two companies in particular had a surge in references: IBM and Overstock.com.

IBM, with its Watson program and early involvement in the emerging fintech scene, is a recurring leader in the category. What’s new is that as concepts are maturing, bigger and more influential ecosystem players are now making moves: IBM recently revealed that it has been meeting with executives from commodities trading platforms, large corporations, and perhaps most importantly, central banks, to explore cryptocurrencies and blockchain in their operating models. (CoinDesk)

Overstock.com also made the headlines as possibly the first $1bn+ listed company dipping into crypto funding with an ICO (Initial Coin Offering). The stock fell sharply year to date (-40%), in part in reaction to the Securities and Exchange Commission starting an investigation on Overstock.com’s subsidiary that did the ICO. (Investopedia)

With this report, we are starting down the path of quantifying linguistic data. This report is a real use case of the exciting new features we recently released, like our Transcript Sentiment Report function, which is part of Sentieo Document Search.

Below is a sneak peek of the report: a sample page about the information technology sector.

To learn more about the companies, industries, and regions where crypto and other themes are being most discussed, download the full report, which covers this sector and many more. To find out more about how to run your own sentiment analysis with Sentieo, sign up here for a free trial.

 

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Assessing Fed Chair Hopefuls With NLP Analysis Of Past Speeches

This article was originally published in Forbes

Our third article on the Fed leverages third-party political trend data as well as powerful Sentieo opinion mining to break down past speeches from top contenders for the Fed Chair. We discuss possible 2018 scenarios and delve deeper into the surprising results we come across. Brush up on the previous articles and see what’s coming up next in our series using the FedSpeak lexicon here:

Sentiment Analysis Of FOMC Statements Reveals A More Hawkish Fed
Why Is The Fed Still Raising Rates? The Yellen Effect
Assessing Fed Chair Hopefuls With NLP Analysis Of Past Speeches
Predicting The FOMC Statement With Beige Book Sentiment Data

From left, Gov. Jerome Powell, Former Vice Chairman Stanley Fischer, Federal Reserve General Counsel Scott Alvarez, and Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen, speak together following a Board of Governors meeting. (AP Photo/Andrew Harnik)

We set out to analyze the historical speeches of the top Fed candidates with Sentieo’s natural language processing capabilities and in the process, we learned something interesting. It doesn’t matter.

The Federal Reserve is not a one-woman organization and while the chair tends to drive policy, the minutes reveal that the entire committee weighs in on decisions. Some subtle changes over the course of this year have changed the makeup of the FOMC into a more hawkish committee. Furthermore, the composition of the FOMC will change when four of the regional bank presidents and voting members rotate out for their peers.

Earlier this year, Daniel Tarullo resigned. And just a little over a month ago, Stanley Fischer, a longtime central banker, resigned from Fed Board of Governors. In their place, Donald Trump has nominated Randal Quarles, a monetary hawk who favors a rule-based approach to monetary policy, as vice chair for bank supervision. Unfortunately, transcripts of Mr. Quarles views on monetary policy are not readily available, so he is not included in the quantitative analysis.

Read More

Sentieo Linguistic Analytics – American Express Q3 Earnings

The following analysis was prepared using tools offered by Sentieo. Sign up for a free trial.

While the new CEO was viewed positively by the Street, and was perhaps previewed in a previous call, the conference call event itself showed an increasing divergence in the direction of the discussion between analysts and management, where analysts are focused more on profitability metrics and card program concerns, while management talked much more broadly.  Given this, and the negative divergence in our sentiment metrics between Management and analysts, it would be prudent to be more cautious on AXP stock at these levels.

Here is our linguistic analysis:

American Express announced a CEO change this quarter.  Versus last quarter, management commentary obviously focused mostly on the new CEO and broad commentary around the company.

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However, the Sentiment Spread, a measure of the bullishness of management vs analysts, has turned down sharply, suggesting over-confidence by analysts.

Read More

Why Is The Fed Still Raising Rates? The Yellen Effect

This article was originally published in Forbes

Our second investigation of the Fed’s sentiment discusses the impact Chairwoman Yellen has had on the Federal Reserve since her rise to the Chair in 2014. We created and utilized our ‘FedSpeak’ lexicon to delve into the correlation between the Fed’s intentions and Yellen’s speeches before colleagues, Congress, and the press. Read the previous article and see what’s coming up next in our series here:

Sentiment Analysis Of FOMC Statements Reveals A More Hawkish Fed
Why Is The Fed Still Raising Rates? The Yellen Effect
Assessing Fed Chair Hopefuls With NLP Analysis Of Past Speeches
Predicting The FOMC Statement With Beige Book Sentiment Data

Federal Reserve Board Chairwoman Janet Yellen speaks during a news conference following a meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee September 20, 2017 in Washington, DC. Yellen announced that the Fed will not change interest rates this quarter. This is one of the last meetings before Chair Janet Yellen’s four-year term ends in February.

The Federal Reserve conducts the nation’s monetary policy under a mandate from Congress to promote maximum employment, stable prices, and moderate long-term interest rates in the U.S. economy.

The Fed began its current round of rate hikes in 2015, and the Fed Funds target rate now stands at 1.25%, up from 0% two years ago.

Read More

Dissecting The Latest Netflix Earnings Transcript

The following analysis was prepared using tools offered by Sentieo. Sign up for a free trial.

We let our data scientists loose on NFLX’s latest conference call transcript. High-level takeaway:  NFLX is sounding a more muted tone while the Street is still excited, and the stock is at a high.

Key takeaways:

1.  Management sentiment has fallen two quarters in a row. (blue line below)

 

2.  The spread between Management sentiment and Analyst sentiment has fallen to a recent low, implying that while Management is getting less bullish, analysts are not yet changing their tone.

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Read More

Sentiment Analysis Of FOMC Statements Reveals A More Hawkish Fed

This article was originally published in Forbes

This piece kicks off our new series on the analysis of the Federal Reserve using Sentieo’s natural language processing power and flexible Doc Search technology. We will focus on bringing interesting ideas and surprising revelations derived from thousands of public federal reserve documents. Join us as we scrutinize meetings, congressional testimonies, and press conferences with some truly impressive technology; and see what’s coming up next in our series:

Sentiment Analysis Of FOMC Statements Reveals A More Hawkish Fed
Why Is The Fed Still Raising Rates? The Yellen Effect
Assessing Fed Chair Hopefuls With NLP Analysis Of Past Speeches
Predicting The FOMC Statement With Beige Book Sentiment Data

The Federal Reserve System’s Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meets eight times a year, at 2 p.m. Eastern Time in the basement of a nondescript, Washington, D.C. office building. The terse statements released after those meetings drive the direction of global financial markets and the meeting minutes are carefully scrutinized carefully by the media.

We parsed recent statements and minutes since 2012 using Sentieo’s natural language processing and sentiment analysis and found some interesting trends.

For the most recent statement 9/20, the strongest topic continued to be inflation, as highlighted in the unfiltered word cloud shown here.

The intensity was roughly equivalent to the prior statement, as the Fed continues to be vexed by an inflation shortfall versus expectations. Based on the statements alone, this analysis would suggest that Fed intentions have barely changed.  However, when we apply sentiment analysis to the words in the documents using the Loughran-McDonald context-specific lexicon, which assigns a simple positive or negative value to words based on the financial services industry context, the 9/20 statement occurs as much more hawkish.

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Retail Bloodbath: Parsing the Cyclical, Electoral, and Structural Triple Threat

The retail sector is going through a rough patch due to digital disruption, weak consumer sentiment (driven by election fears), and commodity deflation, leading to a series of bankruptcies and store closures. According to Sentieo’s document search, retailers are facing the toughest of times – evidenced by drastically increased rates of store closures, and putting into question the very survival of these firms.

Bankruptcy and store closures trending higher vs. 2008 recession period

The American retail landscape has seen a host of bankruptcies (Aeropostale, Sports Authority, Sports Chalet) and store closures in the last couple years. Macy’s recently announced the closure of 100 stores in FY17, followed by 40 closures in FY16.

We did a document search in Sentieo of all retailers for the term “Store closure.” As seen in the graph below, the mention of “store closure” by retailers is trending higher vs. the 2008-09 recession and the 2012 election, highlighting the ongoing bloodbath in the retail space.

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$CMG – Sentieo Index catches positive and negative inflections in Chipotle comps and correctly forecasts continuing April weakness

Lets take a look at how Sentieo could have helped you generate returns by tracking Chipotle’s (CMG) web and social data over the past six months. Sentieo is a new financial platform that supercharges your research process & returns by combining deep document search, tracking of new web and social datasets and an integrated research notebook into a seamless web + mobile experience.

The graph below represents CMG’s trends over the past nine months, showing data before and after the food safety scare. The red line represents CMG’s historical and expected revenue growth, while the yellow line with dots is CMG’s weekly same store sales as disclosed by the company. The faint orange line is Twitter mentions of “Chipotle E coli” and the faint green line is Twitter mentions of “Chipotle free burrito.” Between the two they demarcate when the scare began and when CMG tried to entice customers back with a marketing push and free food. It’s also noteworthy that although the orange line spiked highest during the initial scare, it has continued to spike periodically through February, giving some credence to management’s comments about the impact of the February Boston news stories on February and March comps. Finally, the heavy dashed dark blue line represents the Sentieo Index, which is a proprietary aggregation of CMG’s Web and Social data, including website/mobile traffic, web searches, app downloads and Twitter mentions. This daily index is intended to track CMG’s revenue performance and has been highly predictive over the past year.

Sentieo Index vs. CMG Sales and Twitter Mentions

 

We can see the spike in the faint orange line signifies the start of the scare, and the weekly comps (yellow line) drop immediately. The Sentieo index initially pops as people discuss the scare but then goes meaningfully negative, tracking the trend in comp store sales closely. This decay in trends and comps continues with a trough -40% comp in late January, before the marketing push & free burrito coupons begin. As expected, those actions drive a recovery in both trends and comps.  However, the recovery is short lived, with the Sentieo Index nearly roundtripping to pre-marketing levels by mid-March. Comps take a bit longer to turn down, as there is a lag between when buzz is generated and when customers go back into stores. However, by the week ending March 12th (the last reported datapoint before today’s earnings call), comps are again deteriorating. Since March we can see the Sentieo Index continues to deteriorate throughout April, so its not a surprise to learn today that April month to date comps are at -26% (ex Easter shifts). There is some fodder for both bulls and bears out of today’s news, however, it certainly appears that the turn at CMG is going to take longer than bulls are expecting.

The Sentieo Index is broadly applicable across Consumer, Internet, TMT, and consumer-focused healthcare & financial companies. Similar analysis for the names you follow is as simple as a few clicks in Sentieo, request a trial today. While creating this analysis requires pulling in data from many sources, what used to take hours takes only minutes with Sentieo. To gather the sales comp data, we simply search “CMG, sales comp” in Sentieo’s document search engine, which searches all filings, transcripts, company presentations and broker research in a single click-


Sentieo CMG Document Search

While searching, we can highlight, annotate and tag text with one click. All such text gets aggregated in your Sentieo Notebook, where you can organize and search all your highlights, meeting notes, clips from the web and important emails in one place. Moreover your notebook is available offline and online, as well as in the Sentieo iPhone and iPad apps.

Sentieo CMG Notebook

The first Sentieo Index chart can be created by simply calling CMG, however, you can also call and analyze each individual dataset in Sentieo, such as web traffic or web searches. Setting up alerts against these web datasets is also a snap. Sentieo allows you to upload your own datasets into Mosaic, and Sentieo’s team of former buyside analysts is also available to help generate and interpret Mosaic data. Come be the first to check out Sentieo today and start generating insights for this earnings season.

To see how Sentieo can inform your revenue predictions, simply go to Sentieo.com and sign up for a free trial. If you would like to continually receive content related to topics of interest in the markets, don’t forget to subscribe to the Sentieo Blog so that we can notify you of new posts by e-mail. 

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