No $LUV for Airlines: Please assume the brace position $AAL $ALK $DAL $JBLU $SAVE $UAL $HA

“If you want to be a millionaire, start with a billion dollars and launch a new airline,” Warren Buffett is fond of saying. The chronic bankruptcies and bailouts of the airline industries are widely known in the investment world – David Einhorn even did his undergraduate thesis on the topic which helped him start his investing career. However, you would not know it from the stocks – over the last five years, a quarterly rebalanced basket of major airline stocks have returned +450%, handily trouncing the S&P’s piddling +60%. Whitney Tilson put out a famous bull piece on the airline sector in 2014 summing up the zeitgeist: pricing is strong, planes are full, oil is cheap. Last week, Southwest $LUV printed record profit of $820m, up 35% year on year. Yet the stock tanked 11% on the guidance. What has changed in the airline sector and what could this mean for the rest of us?

 

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$TWLO: Diligencing IPOs on Sentieo

Twilio filed their highly anticipated S1 yesterday, which was available to search, annotate and analyze instantly on Sentieo. Our analyst was able to build a quick 3 statement model in under 15 minutes, available below.
– WhatsApp is 15% of revenue, but the breadth of customers disclosed has surprised commentators, including Nordstrom $JWN. We show how this has been known for over a year, and how a broader ecosystem list could have been generated months ago using Sentieo, yielding interesting clients like Salesforce $CRM, partners like 8×8 $EGHT, landlords like Boston Properties $BXP and listed, lesser known competitors like GINSMS $GOK:CN and Xura $MESG.
– Many research processes, from pulling out $TWLO financials to building a notebook from web clips of external articles can be done in a single click. 
– Twilio’s wide competition can be tracked and aggregated, and show a surprising trend in recent months that will be worth investigating.

Rather than discussing the IPO dynamics which will certainly be difficult in this tech-unfriendly IPO environment, we wanted to spend some time walking users through how they can even diligence non-public companies using Sentieo. In particular, we will highlight three of our products: DocSearch, Web Clipper, and Mosaic.

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