Sentieo Use Case: Is The MGM Lion Ready to Pounce As Supreme Court Allows States to Legalize Sports Betting?

On Monday, the Supreme Court overturned PASPA (the Professional and Amateur Sports Protection Act that effectively banned commercial sports betting in most states), opening the door to legalizing the estimated $150 billion in illegal wagers on professional and amateur sports that Americans make every year. (New York Times)

We immediately jumped into Sentieo to see how various companies were taking the news. We pulled up a search for “PASPA” and its synonyms.

Mentions of PASPA in documents have certainly spiked in the last 3 months as companies have been eagerly awaiting the announcement:

We looked at the companies mentioning PASPA the most in their documents and found a few companies that will likely see positive impacts. They include:

    1. William Hill – bookmaker based in London that is listed on the London Stock Exchange and is a constituent of the FTSE 250 Index
    2. Stars Group – Canadian gaming and online gambling company traded on Nasdaq and the Toronto Stock Exchange
    3. 888 Holdings – headquartered in Gibraltar, one of the world’s most popular online gaming operators & platform providers
    4. MGM Resorts International – American global hospitality and entertainment company
    5. Sportech PLC – online gambling and entertainment company headquartered in the United Kingdom,  traded on the London Stock Exchange under the symbol SPO

Here is the stock of Stars Group, with a large spike on May 14th:

All of these companies, except for MGM, had massive gains on Monday as the news hit the wire.

We dug a bit deeper into the MGM documents, and a May 10th Analyst day presentation caught our eye. Here’s a close-up:

On the call, MGM Chairman and CEO James Murren beat his chest on (correctly) predicting the outcome of the PASPA decision and tries to show that MGM Resorts’ primacy in the sports market and the overturning of PASPA would be a massive opportunity for the company. The accompanying slides from the presentation outlined the opportunity.

MGM was eagerly awaiting the PASPA announcement and is sure to already be pouncing on the opportunity to become even more of an “undisputed leader in sports.”

Unfortunately, for the company, the stock has not moved up accordingly since Friday. This is either a terrific investment opportunity, or a hope unrealized.

 

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Bears Be Warned, Pandora $P Quite Literally Bought The Quarter

We are huge fans of Tim Westergren, who wrote the textbook on scrappy startups having founded and led Pandora through the tech implosion of the early 2000s. Doing everything to keep Pandora alive, from convincing employees to defer salaries, to maxing out personal credit cards, Tim’s vision of a Music Genome Project (US Patent 7,003,515) ultimately proved immensely valuable. But that was a decade ago.

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Since then, huge competitors from adjacencies like Apple ($AAPL) and Youtube ($GOOGL), well funded entrants like Amazon ($AMZN), to startups like Spotify and Tidal, have waded into the space with new technology. Spotify today was the subject of fresh discussions around an $8bn IPO while Pandora languishes at a $3bn market cap. A combination of 1) a subscription-based business model, 2) on-demand listening and 3) curated discovery has proven extremely successful and has presented a serious threat to Pandora’s lean-back, low ad load, passive listening model.

Tim has returned to rescue Pandora once again. Pandora’s pivot is 6 years too late, but late is better than never, and they are now pulling out all the stops. In this post, we show:

  • How the Street has gotten Pandora’s modeling so very wrong – and is still doing it!
  • How Pandora is ex growth in users and in technology
  • How to track Pandora on operator metrics using our Mosaic product and ask the right questions
  • How to import custom data sets into our Plotter and answer those questions

Put your favorite playlist on, and let’s begin!

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