Sentieo Linguistic Analytics – American Express Q3 Earnings

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While the new CEO was viewed positively by the Street, and was perhaps previewed in a previous call, the conference call event itself showed an increasing divergence in the direction of the discussion between analysts and management, where analysts are focused more on profitability metrics and card program concerns, while management talked much more broadly.  Given this, and the negative divergence in our sentiment metrics between Management and analysts, it would be prudent to be more cautious on AXP stock at these levels.

Here is our linguistic analysis:

American Express announced a CEO change this quarter.  Versus last quarter, management commentary obviously focused mostly on the new CEO and broad commentary around the company.

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However, the Sentiment Spread, a measure of the bullishness of management vs analysts, has turned down sharply, suggesting over-confidence by analysts.

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