Sentieo notebook conferences

Sentieo’s Guide to Conference Season

As earnings season winds down, equity analysts start thinking about investment bank conferences and upcoming meetings with management. While the largest concentration of conferences happens in July and September, conference season happens year-round, so we thought now would be a good time to share our guide.

As conference season begins, you’ve got a lot on your mind. You and your team are getting ready to catch a flight, prepping for multiple days of back-to-back meetings. You want to be as prepared as possible, to ensure that you get the most out of your time away.

As former analysts, we’ve been in your shoes, so we put together a quick guide to help you out.


Get Mobile

When you’re on the road, your mobile device is your best friend. Don’t miss anything while you’re gone; use a mobile cloud software that allows you to review documents and financials while traveling — anywhere, anytime.

Reference financial data and prior conference transcripts on your tablet and phone during meetings with management, so your questions are sharp and you get the most out of your meetings.

With mobile access, you won’t fall behind if you’re away from an onsite data terminal. (And try not to forget your phone charger at home).

 

Prep Your Questions

Prepare and store your questions for conference meetings within a system that you can access while you’re in the meeting room, ideally from your mobile device. You’ll need a mobile app that stores any notes made by you or your team.

As the meetings occur, keep organized and also take notes within your mobile app. Tag them by ticker, topic, or your own keywords for easy retrieval after the trip.

Use note templates to have your questions ready and make sure you capture all the necessary information. Check out this example in Sentieo:

Go to your Sentieo Notebook, and choose your pre-made note template.

Sentieo template notes

 

Add your notes for the meeting, and save with the appropriate tickers and tags, for easy retrieval when you get back to the office.

 

Here are some topics you may want to ask questions about:

  • Emerging competitors 
  • Competitive positioning
  • Organic growth
  • Key drivers of standard and one time costs
  • Capital allocation
  • Capex
  • M&A
  • Dividends
  • Buyback
  • Problem areas/weaknesses the company is facing
  • Plans for raising capital

 

Collaborate with your team in real-time, whether or not they are at the conference, to ensure that you maximize the value of your meetings.

Add images from presentations that haven’t yet been released publicly directly in your notes so you don’t lose them.

 

Listen Carefully and Read Management’s Body Language

Management presentations will typically seem optimistic, but look for clues and ask tough questions to get to key nuggets of information. Try to scope out and take notes on indicators such as:

  • Management speaker confidence
  • Openness about risks (generally thought of as a sign of genuine enthusiasm)
  • Covering one’s neck (i.e. subconsciously seeking to protect a vulnerable part of their body) is a sign of discomfort, as is adjusting a tie, loosening a collar, or rubbing the forehead.
  • Executives who are uncomfortable with what they are saying often use “distancing language,” changing pronouns from “I” and “we” to “the company.”

Some other things to look out for in management presentations:

  • Comments on liquidity: trends in cash flow (or lack there-of) on balance sheet
  • Use of credit lines (are they too dependent on these?)
  • Press activity (press releases, PR firm hiring, poaching talented executives, new product announcements, focus on research and development, or R&D)

 

Network

When there’s downtime, talk to people from other teams and make friends. Your conversations could spark an idea, or you could make a valuable connection.

 

Investment Bank Conferences in 2018:

We compiled a list of webpages with the dates for investment bank conferences, below for your reference. There are a few large banks (Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley) and smaller firms that do not have lists, but this should help you make sure you don’t miss any upcoming conferences.

 

Keep organized, and enjoy conference season!

 

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The 100 Best Twitter Accounts for Finance

Last year, we published our first annual list of the top Finance twitter handles. About a year later, we’ve come back with an update to the dataset.

As a financial research platform built for modern analysts, Sentieo incorporates data from the financial realm of Twitter into its product as part of a curated news stream for each ticker. The 2018 list of handles to follow spans people and organizations with an eye for equities, who offer thoughtful insight and tweet often.

We used a data-driven approach coupled with curated selection to uncover the very best, and we go into more detail on our methodology below. Without further ado here are the top 100 Finance Twitter handles to follow in 2018:

Rank Twitter Handle Popularity Rating Total Followers % of Total Followers
1 John_Hempton 79 24,400 0.32%
2 BarbarianCap 76 21,100 0.36%
3 muddywatersre 73 47,600 0.15%
4 AlderLaneeggs 71 16,400 0.43%
5 CitronResearch 68 60,200 0.11%
6 BrattleStCap 67 18,700 0.36%
7 KerrisdaleCap 65 20,200 0.32%
8 modestproposal1 65 22,700 0.29%
9 marketfolly 65 48,200 0.13%
10 EventDrivenMgr 64 6,698 0.96%
11 ActivistShorts 64 15,400 0.42%
12 Carl_C_Icahn 64 342,000 0.02%
13 LongShortTrader 63 20,000 0.32%
14 DonutShorts 62 10,200 0.61%
15 sprucepointcap 62 10,600 0.58%
16 BluegrassCap 59 16,000 0.37%
17 SIRF_Report 57 8,626 0.66%
18 NoonSixCap 57 8,641 0.66%
19 WallStCynic 57 12,900 0.44%
20 GothamResearch 57 21,900 0.26%
21 herbgreenberg 57 399,000 0.01%
22 Valuetrap13 56 9,514 0.59%
23 valuewalk 56 47,400 0.12%
24 UnionSquareGrp 55 4,922 1.12%
25 PlanMaestro 55 10,200 0.54%
26 ReformedBroker 55 882,000 0.01%
27 SkeleCap 54 6,154 0.88%
28 FatTailCapital 54 6,964 0.78%
29 ShortSightedCap 53 5,642 0.94%
30 footnoted 53 20,200 0.26%
31 Mega_Man_2 52 4,147 1.25%
32 JacobWolinsky 51 5,350 0.95%
33 zerohedge 51 440,000 0.01%
34 FundyLongShort 50 3,585 1.39%
35 MugatuCapital 50 8,890 0.56%
36 DumbLuckCapital 49 4,955 0.99%
37 Hedge_FundGirl 49 5,850 0.84%
38 PresciencePoint 49 9,004 0.54%
39 DavidSchawel 49 30,700 0.16%
40 pmarca 49 671,000 0.01%
41 fundiescapital 48 3,148 1.52%
42 ActAccordingly 48 3,547 1.35%
43 EquityNYC 48 5,223 0.92%
44 nosunkcosts 48 5,674 0.85%
45 MicroFundy 48 7,957 0.60%
46 BergenCapital 48 28,400 0.17%
47 marginalidea 47 1,843 2.55%
48 Keubiko 47 4,542 1.03%
49 Jesse_Livermore 47 37,100 0.13%
50 PainCapital 46 8,446 0.54%
51 EdBorgato 46 8,843 0.52%
52 SmallCapLS 45 2,679 1.68%
53 RodBoydILM 45 3,388 1.33%
54 AlexRubalcava 45 5,828 0.77%
55 LadyFOHF 45 13,000 0.35%
56 activiststocks 45 13,100 0.34%
57 firstadopter 45 33,400 0.13%
58 WarrenBuffett 45 1,310,000 0.00%
59 WSJ 45 14,900,000 0.00%
60 realDonaldTrump 45 39,800,000 0.00%
61 xuexishenghuo 44 2,693 1.63%
62 cablecarcapital 44 3,322 1.32%
63 probesreporter 44 4,082 1.08%
64 GrantsPub 44 25,400 0.17%
65 business 44 4,290,000 0.00%
66 DennyCrane550 43 1,018 4.22%
67 Seventeen_Mile 43 3,484 1.23%
68 StaleyRdCap 43 4,478 0.96%
69 AureliusValue 43 4,660 0.92%
70 Find_Me_Value 43 6,925 0.62%
71 davidein 43 30,800 0.14%
72 maxvision33 42 1,831 2.29%
73 ValueDude 42 1,985 2.12%
74 Fritz844 42 3,321 1.26%
75 plainview_ 42 3,645 1.15%
76 TMTanalyst 42 12,100 0.35%
77 manualofideas 42 17,400 0.24%
78 QTRResearch 42 19,500 0.22%
79 matt_levine 42 59,200 0.07%
80 StrangestTribeX 41 1,324 3.10%
81 LibertyRPF 41 3,500 1.17%
82 AZ_Value 41 3,845 1.07%
83 FCFYield 41 4,562 0.90%
84 GlaucusResearch 41 5,775 0.71%
85 HardcoreValue 41 9,801 0.42%
86 PhilipEtienne 41 10,400 0.39%
87 HedgeyeENERGY 41 11,000 0.37%
88 TigreCapital 40 1,841 2.17%
89 CopperfieldRscr 40 3,336 1.20%
90 covenantlite 40 3,454 1.16%
91 adoxen 40 3,695 1.08%
92 HedgeyeHWP 40 7,934 0.50%
93 mjmauboussin 40 24,500 0.16%
94 TruthGundlach 40 36,400 0.11%
95 bespokeinvest 40 61,100 0.07%
96 UnderwaterCap 39 2,098 1.86%
97 jay_21_ 39 2,303 1.69%
98 schaudenfraud 39 2,808 1.39%
99 JohnHuber72 39 8,949 0.44%
100 mark_dow 39 37,200 0.10%


Methodology

To find the 100 best finance handles to follow on Twitter in 2018, we first developed a curated seed list of ~120 heavy financial users who are active investors and on Twitter. In order to maintain the privacy of these users, we cannot reveal their Twitter handles, but they effectively constitute a panel of experts.

We created a list of all of the Twitter handles that these 120 folks follow on Twitter. We then aggregated this list to find the handles that are most frequently followed across all of the accounts on the seed list. The popularity ranking represents the number of accounts from the seed list that follow the ranked handle. For handles that have the same popularity ranking, they are ranked by the percentage of that handle’s total followers that are on this list (to adjust for larger accounts).

Of course, no list is perfect, there are definitely some false positives and false negatives in here. Overall, though, we think a user interested in staying apprised on equities would be well advised to follow every user on this list.

Note: this list has a decidedly equities-oriented focus, based on the current nature of our product and our interest in information about individual companies. For a more macro/markets oriented list, check out this post from StreetEye.

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Introducing The Sentieo Trump Tracker: Follow The President’s Impact On Your Investments

trump-tracker-facebook-og-image (2)

Today, we are excited to introduce the Trump Tracker. It’s a bot that constantly scans new public financial documents for mentions of President Trump. These documents include all SEC filings, conference call transcripts, investor presentations, press releases, and more. The bot instantly surfaces new mentions of Trump as soon as they’re published, while intelligent queries automatically sort them into topics like Obamacare, Mexico, and NAFTA.

Anyone interested in following the administration’s impact on public companies can engage with the Trump Tracker by checking the dedicated website, following the @trumptrackerbot Twitter account, or signing up for a daily email alert on the site.

The Trump Administration is Now a Stated Risk Factor for Public Companies

When we last wrote about the Trump administration at the end of January, we noted that the markets paid six times as much attention to the new president’s policies as compared to those of President Obama over a comparable time period. Sixty days after President Trump moved into the White House, we see that trend continuing.

The number of regulatory filings mentioning President Trump sharply increased after Inauguration Day on January 20th. We measure a total of over 1750 filings mentioning President Trump from January 20th through March 22nd, 939 of which are SEC documents.

There is a significant change in the tenor of those mentions as well. We see references to President Trump shifting from high-level comments to more formal statements in the “Risk Factors” disclosure sections of SEC filings. Overall, 60% of references to President Trump within SEC filings are in the “Risk Factors” section. This is a substantial increase from the less than 15% we observed during the presidential campaign. This trend is even more pronounced in the healthcare industry, where we find that 85% of mentions since Inauguration Day were contained in these sections.

This shift is illustrated in the graph below:

Each bubble in the above graph represents an industry, while the size of each bubble corresponds to the number of SEC filings mentioning President Trump in that industry. The higher the bubble, the larger the share of those mentions present within “Risk Factors” sections. The dotted line, meanwhile, represents the average share of Trump mentions within “Risk Factors” sections across the market.

As you can see, both the number of mentions and the share of those mentions contained within “Risk Factors” sections has increased significantly since Inauguration Day.

In the months preceding President Trump’s inauguration, only about 15% of mentions were contained in “Risk Factors.” Over the past two months, that number has increased to 60%.

In total, Trump has already been mentioned in the “Risk Factors” sections of 10% of all 10Ks filed across all industries since January 20th.

Why are Tech and Consumer Discretionary so quiet?

We are surprised to find that only 4% of technology companies’ 10Ks and 10Qs filed since January 20th mention Trump at all. Likewise, in the Consumer Discretionary category, only 4% mention Trump.

These industries are reliant on overseas manufacturing and foreign workers, both of which are threatened by the President’s stated policies. We would have expected therefore to see a larger share of cautionary statements. These results, therefore, leave us wondering if management teams are rightfully dismissive or if they are hiding their heads in the sand?

Big Topics, Little Attention

Some prominent topics are largely absent from filings despite having been flagged repeatedly by market participants as a high risk. These include:

  • The Wall: We found only one SEC filing referring to Trump’s wall on the Mexican border.
  • Immigration and H-1B Visas: This is a key issue for many tech companies but also several other industries from Agriculture to anything with a high-street. H-1B visas are not mentioned at all, and Immigration in general is mentioned in only three SEC filings since January 20th.
  • NAFTA: Though Trump has threatened to renegotiate NAFTA, which could threaten American agriculture and associated industries, we find only eight mentions of the topic in SEC filings since January 20th.

Below is a summary table with the results for several key recurring themes of President Trump:

Source: Sentieo Document Search

Methodology

The Trump Tracker is built on top of Sentieo’s powerful financial document search and keyword alert engine. The Bot is constantly scanning through over 9 million financial documents that include SEC filings, conference call transcripts, investor presentations and press releases.

To generate the alerts, we built a series of complex queries that search for the word “Trump” in the proximity to other keywords. In most of these queries we also automatically filter out mentions of some of Trump’s businesses so that our alerts are more focused on real mentions of President Trump. However, the Trump’s Businesses filter allows you to see these mentions.

We plan on adding additional themes and would love your feedback. If you have an idea for a new theme, please email us at trumptracker@sentieo.com.

Banner image of Trump (at top) from AP Images. 

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Using Google Chrome: Some Tips And Tricks For Equity Analysts

Google’s web browser can save you time by loading web pages faster (sometimes 10X faster) than other browsers.  Here are some ways in which Chrome can save you even more time:

  • Add bookmarks to the Bookmarks bar that appears when you open a new tab.
  • Add shortcuts to Chrome’s address bar, letting you access websites with fewer keystrokes.
  • Re-open closed tabs with Crtl + Shift + T.

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Social media is moving markets. Here’s how to stay informed via finance Twitter.

Finance Twitter (or FinTwit) refers to the community of Twitter users that talk about stocks.  The wonderful thing about finance Twitter is that it curates unique investment insights that would be difficult to find elsewhere.  It’s a great way to find out about original research from the blogosphere, such as John Hempton’s work on the functionality (or lack thereof) of Flotek’s iPad app.  Hempton’s blog post immediately caused $FTK stock to fall by more than a fifth, highlighting the growing ability of bloggers and activists to move markets.  If you want to stay on top of all market-moving information, you should start thinking about Twitter.

FinTwit is also a great source of news, analysis, and stock ideas.  Many Twitter accounts like @ActivistShorts and @ValueWalk will post news geared specifically towards equity analysts with a narrower focus than mainstream financial news outlets like CNBC. Portfolio managers, analysts and serious individual investors will post news updates and analysis on companies they follow.  Many analysts will post elevator pitches of their stock ideas, looking for feedback and criticism.  And it shouldn’t be surprising that many activist short sellers use Twitter to disseminate their campaigns, some of which spice up your stock quotes.

Here’s our guide on how to get started with Finance Twitter.  We’ve categorized the most popular FinTwit accounts to help you follow whatever it is that interests you the most.
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Sentieo: The Gandalf of Document Search Wizards

10k Wizard (as loyalists insist on calling the clunkily renamed “Morningstar Document Search”) closes its doors on Aug 31st. Intelligize, the legal search platform, struck an endorsement deal with them, leaving financial users out in the cold. Consequently, we have been fielding a ton of questions as to how we match up as a 10K Wizard alternative, and thought it would be wise to collate our thoughts here.


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7 Tips for Hacking Conference Season

It’s That Most Wonderful Time of the (Quarter)

After recovering from the madness of earnings, buyside analysts have the pleasure of getting up face to face with company management in regular conference seasons organized by their sellside partners. These are usually spectacularly well-run affairs, as the sellside has made a great business out of combining management access and industry schmoozing. Once a quarter, cloistered buysiders emerge from their intense skyscraper offices, blinking in the daylight, and decamp to airports and hotels on either coast. It is an entirely different skillset, as one has to switch from trading stocks to trading meeting schedule; from the neat rows and columns of Excel to loosely structured “fireside” chats; from meeting familiar people on your own terms to rapidly gaining rapport with strangers on theirs.

Sellside analysts, too, apart from being part time party planners, have to bring their absolute A game as they play host to invited management teams as well as demanding clients, all of whom expect the analyst to match names to faces and have facts and key arguments ready at their fingertips. Many sellsiders even go the extra mile to organize field trips to company headquarters, increasing the logistical nightmare by an order of magnitude.

Oh, and while all this is happening, the markets are still open.

The Why

Why go to all this trouble when everything material, by regulation, needs to be publicly and widely disseminated anyway? The trite reply is that more than 90% of communication is nonverbal; but ultimately what really counts is being able to ask your own questions of management teams and having their replies truly inform your judgment of their strategy and competitive environment. Cynics will also point to the buyside schmoozing that goes on on the sidelines – and it doesn’t hurt to gain some personal benefit out of trading commission dollars.

This is big business; the going rate per meeting organized can get up to four figures, which multiplied by dozens of meetings and hundreds of participants can justify a lot of late nights. But the worst kept secret of Conference Season is that there is a ton of wastage, and we don’t just mean food.

Sentieo Helps You Focus on The How

Here are 7 things the modern analyst needs to be doing to get the most out of conference season:

  1. Offline Sync Everything
    • WiFi is unreliable in conference rooms and on planes. Why take the risk? You need your notes, financial model, and Q’s/K’s/Transcripts at your fingertips.
    • Sentieo’s iPad (and soon, iPhone) app allows you to offline sync all the above and more.
    • Now when the CFO dodges a question with “I don’t have the numbers in front of me right now”, you’ll have them.
  2. Search through prior transcripts
    • Asking a question that has already been answered is a waste of everybody’s time. Avoid the embarrassment and go on the offensive by demonstrating that you not only are you aware that the question has been asked in the past, you are pressing for more detail and asking them to directly compare their situation now to what they have said in the past.
    • DocSearch is a core Sentieo use case and we are the best platform at highlighting and integrating all your search results into one meeting prep document you can take with you to all your meetings.
  3. Use Plotter to illustrate the points you want to make
    • productivity1
  4. Modern Notetaking Software
    • Hands up if you are using Microsoft Outlook as your primary notetaking app? Or the generic Notes app on your Apple or Android device? Or -god forbid- legal pads?
    • Sentieo’s Notebook, available on all devices, allows you to tag inline stock ideas and themes as you type and sync to Evernote, OneNote, or your internal compliance tool of choice. Share it with your team automatically or in just a couple of taps. Pull in everything from Transcript annotations to Plotters to Web Clipper articles into your Notes!
    • Get in touch with us if you currently use voice notes.
  5. Play With Your Model While Discussing It With Management
    • productivity2
  6. Keep up to speed on the markets with Sentieo Edge and the Sentieo Edge Digest
    • Staying on top of your coverage is tough when you are rushing from meeting to meeting. Having a filter for what is important and market moving is critical so you remain as functional outside the office as when you are in, without drowning in a flood of email backlog.
    • Sentieo Edge can send you automated premarket and postmarket summaries of news, filings, and alerts all in one email. Choose between the daily Digest, or get the full Edge on your entire universe.
    • productivity4
  7. Set up Keyword Alerts
    • How do you keep on top of what is being said in other meetings you aren’t attending?
    • Sentieo lets you set up Keyword Alerts for the themes you are listening for, so if they get mentioned in conference transcripts, you get a realtime notification.
    • productivity3
  8. Bonus – Share Sentieo with your friends
    • Friends don’t let friends do conferences without Sentieo. Refer new customers to us and get referral bonuses for you and your friends! Check in with your favorite sales rep for more details.

To see how Sentieo can help with conference season, simply go to Sentieo.com and sign up for a free trial. If you would like to continually receive content related to topics of interest in the markets, don’t forget to subscribe to the Sentieo Blog so that we can notify you of new posts by e-mail. 

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$TWLO: Diligencing IPOs on Sentieo

Twilio filed their highly anticipated S1 yesterday, which was available to search, annotate and analyze instantly on Sentieo. Our analyst was able to build a quick 3 statement model in under 15 minutes, available below.
– WhatsApp is 15% of revenue, but the breadth of customers disclosed has surprised commentators, including Nordstrom $JWN. We show how this has been known for over a year, and how a broader ecosystem list could have been generated months ago using Sentieo, yielding interesting clients like Salesforce $CRM, partners like 8×8 $EGHT, landlords like Boston Properties $BXP and listed, lesser known competitors like GINSMS $GOK:CN and Xura $MESG.
– Many research processes, from pulling out $TWLO financials to building a notebook from web clips of external articles can be done in a single click. 
– Twilio’s wide competition can be tracked and aggregated, and show a surprising trend in recent months that will be worth investigating.

Rather than discussing the IPO dynamics which will certainly be difficult in this tech-unfriendly IPO environment, we wanted to spend some time walking users through how they can even diligence non-public companies using Sentieo. In particular, we will highlight three of our products: DocSearch, Web Clipper, and Mosaic.

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