Memphis Research Finds A Financial Research Platform It Can Trust

About The Customer:

Memphis Research in Memphis, TN

Using Sentieo Since 2016

Memphis Research offers investment research, portfolio management, and consulting services for the hedge fund industry. Chad Gilliland (President) and Will Frazier (VP/Director) started the firm together in 2011 after working together at a hedge fund for some time.

 

The Challenge

Before Sentieo, the Memphis Research team had tried many financial research platforms, including Capital IQ and Bloomberg. All had fallen short of their expectations in a number of ways. They had un-intuitive user interfaces, limited mobile access, and were overpriced — to name a few shortcomings.

 

The Solution and Results

The team came across Sentieo and started a free trial. They immediately saw their fundamental research process improve:

“We feel like the Sentieo team understands what we do better than other platforms do. You are analysts and you think the way that we do. You know how to design the interface, and what you put into the product is not just random. You’ve included the pertinent details that an investment analyst wants to see. It makes a huge difference that the platform is truly built for analysts, by analysts.”

 

Document Search, Redlining, Watchlist Alerts, and News Stream

The Memphis team likes to run very specific keyword searches using Sentieo’s Document Search. They are able to narrow their searches down by document type, down to the document section (ie. “Risk Factors”). One popular use case for them is searching for disingenuous language and other signifiers within call transcripts.

The team also uses the Document Search redlining tool, which allows them to hone in on new document language or accounting numbers that have changed across quarters or over years.

Will and Chad also “follow” tickers in Sentieo by creating Watchlists of the companies they want to track. This allows them to receive immediate updates to their email inbox whenever new filings or financial statements come out for those companies. This is especially helpful to them during earnings season, when time is of the essence.

The team also keeps up with companies using the Sentieo News Stream, which is a feed of the latest social media tweets and articles about the companies they track.

 

 

 

An Equity Data Terminal They Can Trust

Will spends most of his time in the Sentieo Equity Data Terminal. He really loves the EDT’s company summary page, which lists a company’s consensus estimates, valuation and price target, major holders, and much more:

“In the EDT, I can quickly understand the nuts and bolts of a company. I have more confidence doing my research in Sentieo because I trust the data more than I trust the numbers in other systems.”

Will also extracts tables from documents into Excel, and compares them over time using Sentieo’s TableX suite of tools.

 

Staying Organized With The Notebook

Chad uses the Notebook (Sentieo’s research management system) to store his own notes and annotations by ticker, and to search through them as needed.

 

Mobile App For Access Anywhere, Anytime

Chad and Will frequently travel to trade shows, and they use the Sentieo mobile and tablet apps to keep working on-the-go. With Sentieo, they are able to quickly pull up financials and estimates at their fingertips, instead of printing and taking physical 10Ks and 10Qs with them. When listening to management calls, they are able to quickly pull up the expectations for a ticker on their mobile, and compare them to what’s being discussed on the spot. Chad also heavily uses the Sentieo app for the iPad tablet.

 

Conclusion

Will and Chad explained that Sentieo has revolutionized their fundamental research flow and saved them all the time and frustration they felt when using previous tools:

“We definitely positively endorse Sentieo. It’s an intuitive platform for built for the fundamental equity analyst, and helps us filter out the noise and get down to the fundamentals.”

How to Use Web Search Trends In Your Fundamental Research Workflow #2: Using Screener to Find Interesting Trends

Previous post in this series: How to Use Web Search Trends In Your Fundamental Research Workflow: Beat or Miss?

In our last blog post in this series, we talked about predicting a beat or miss with search trends. But there are situations where the data may not work as easily as with that example. So how can you sift through all of the data to find those situations?

Sentieo’s Screener lets you filter from thousands of stocks down to more manageable lists of names to do further work on. The steps below will use the Sentieo Index, a weighted average of alternative datasets that varies by ticker.

First, let’s rank on companies using a Sentieo Index r-squared of over 0.3. This will help find companies whose search trends correlate closely with revenues. We get down to 405 results:

Now perhaps we want to see where these companies are diverging vs. consensus expectations.

Let’s try using our acceleration ranks. This is just a number from 0 to 100, where (>50) means that the data had a positive acceleration, while (<50) means a negative acceleration (or a deceleration). We can simply look for cases where the Sentieo Index is accelerating, with Revenue growth expected to decelerate.

47 stocks is still a lot to go through. You can narrow down further by filter on a sector or even a specific watchlist. We’ve put in our “Cloud” watchlist to cover pure SaaS companies and are getting the following results:

It’s important to sanity-check these numbers by going into the charting interface. If we look closer for $ZEN, we can see that the Sentieo Index suggests an acceleration, while consensus expects a revenue growth deceleration.

View Interactive Chart

Screening is important when harnessing the power of alternative data. It is impossible to manually sift through data trends for each of the thousands of companies that we cover. Screener will help focus your efforts to a manageable list, so that you’re finding the best opportunities and prioritizing your time accordingly.

 

Top 17 Value Investing Blogs You Should Be Reading

In the constant race against the clock, you shouldn’t waste time reading mediocre content. We put together this list of must-read blogs based on feedback from our team of former analysts and additional in-depth research.

1. ValueWalk

Started in 2010, ValueWalk.com offers breaking financial industry news — with a focus on hedge funds, large asset managers, and value investing. The site provides quality content that is important to value investors (most of which is free).

It is read by senior level executives at the largest banks, hedge funds, asset managers, and Fortune 500 companies.

2. The Reformed Broker

This blog was started in November 2008 by the New York City-based financial advisor and CEO of Ritholtz Wealth Management, Joshua M. Brown.

The blog covers markets, politics, economics, media, culture and finance. Brown uses “statistics, satire, anecdotes, pop culture references, sarcasm, fact, fantasy and any other device” to communicate his market-related insights.

Brown has been featured in or has written for Fortune, Forbes, the Wall Street Journal, MarketWatch, Dow Jones Newswires, Bloomberg, Reuters, and more. He is also an on-air contributor to CNBC.

3. SumZero

This site describes itself as “the world’s largest community exclusively for professional investors, providing quality, peer-reviewed investment research from top analysts and rising stars in the fund industry.” Members describe this site as network-enriching and career-enhancing.

4. Base Hit Investing

John Huber is the portfolio manager of Saber Capital Management, LLC, a value-focused investment firm. Saber’s objective is to compound capital over the long-term by making investments in undervalued stocks of high-quality businesses. A few of his article topics include:

    1. Case Studies
    2. Education
    3. How to Improve Results
    4. Industry-Banks
    5. Industry-Insurance
    6. Industry-Oil
    7. Industry-Railroads
    8. Investment Ideas & Company Research

5. Zero Hedge

The mission statement of ZeroHedge on their website gives a good sense of their content:

    1. to widen the scope of financial, economic and political information available to the professional investing public.
    2. to skeptically examine and, where necessary, attack the flaccid institution that financial journalism has become.
    3. to liberate oppressed knowledge.
    4. to provide analysis uninhibited by political constraint.

Readers can subscribe to their newsletter for daily alerts and a weekly digest of articles.

6. Contrarian Edge

Vitaliy Katsenelson, author of this blog and a couple books, is a former analyst, portfolio manager, and now CEO of Investment Management Associates. His blog posts cover everything from behavioral investing, to capitalism, to cryptocurrency and specific tickers.

7. The Brooklyn Investor

The Brooklyn Investor is somewhat mysterious, in that he doesn’t reveal his real name on his blog. However, he explains that most of his career has been on Wall Street, starting in investment strategy/portfolio management, trading, futures/options and OTC derivatives structuring and trading, proprietary trading, special situations, and systems trading of futures at “one of the big hedge funds.”

He has always been a fan of Warren Buffett and other long term investors, and “it is reasonable to assume that [he is] long stocks that he thinks] are interesting and short the ones that I don’t like etc.” His blog covers everything from AAPL and GOOG to the gold standard.

8. Memos from Howard Marks

Oaktree Capital Management is a global alternative investment management firm with expertise in credit strategies. A section of their website is devoted to insights specifically from their internal team about investment strategies and investment philosophy. Howard Marks (CFA and Co-Chairman of Oaktree) covers topics from index investing to macro-fragility, to algorithmic investing.

9. Berkshire Hathaway Reports

Quarterly and annual reports – also easily accessible within Sentieo Document Search!

10. The Manual of Ideas

Through invitation-only events and member publications, MOI Global fosters a community of intelligent investors united by a passion for lifelong learning. The Manual of Ideas started out nearly a decade ago, focused on content. As the founders went out to gather and generate uniquely differentiated content for value-oriented investors, they came to appreciate the tight-knit value investing community that had been developing for many years thanks to a strong network formed by the Berkshire Hathaway annual meeting.

11. KASE Learning

Whitney Tilson is one of the most public longstanding value investors. Rooted in sharing their half century of experience as value investors and fund managers, Tilson and his long-time partner, Glenn Tongue have produced a multitude of resources on this site.

12. Value Investor Insight

Whitney Tilson also co-founded this monthly newsletter in 2004, in which he and editor in chief John Heins interview two portfolio managers about current topics.

13. Value Investors Club

Value Investors Club is “an exclusive online investment club where top investors share their best ideas.” VIC prides itself in the fact that its members are admitted only because of the strength of their investment ideas, and not their job titles. This selection process adds a number of diverse perspectives the forum.

14. csinvesting

The author of csinvesting has an interesting background: “In my peripatetic life I have been a ruby smuggler, commodity trader, securities analyst, investment banker, and entrepreneur. Each role taught me more about value investing.” His philosophy is for investors to learn from the successes and failures of others, so his blog covers mostly case studies.

15. Value Investing World

Value Investing World is a blog self-described as “dedicated to promoting the multidisciplinary approach to investing and development of – as Charlie Munger describes it – a latticework of mental models…and largely focused on linking to investing and economic material it deems of interest.”

16. Investor Junkie

Articles for everyone from beginner to advanced investors. Topics include everything from “socially responsible investing” to  “investing as an expat.”

17. A Wealth of Common Sense

A Wealth of Common Sense focuses on wealth management, investments, financial markets and investor psychology. Author Ben Carlson, CFA, manages portfolios for institutions and individuals at Ritholtz Wealth Management LLC. Ben has written a few books and has a weekly podcast called “Animal Spirits” which covers financial markets, personal finance, movies and dad life.

 

 

What’s For Brunch? Trending Foods with Growth Potential: Part 2

Last week, we took a close look at the food industry, which certainly follows trends and changing consumption habits that can ultimately greatly affect the performance of various companies. Using Sentieo, we were able to take a look at data and trends regarding protein-rich grains like quinoa, hemp, and sorghum. This week, we’ll examine how the hype around brunch and street foods have been discussed across company filings.

 

The Avocado Craze and Brunch Boom

Avocados have been available to consumers for a while, but they were not very popular outside of Mexican cuisine until a few years ago. Since 2010, the popularity of this fruit has boomed, and consumer interest has spiked due to people’s greater awareness of healthy eating habits. The benefits of the avocado are many: the fruit has more potassium than bananas and is full of antioxidants, to name a few.

Google Trends data from Sentieo shows the booming popularity of the avocado quite clearly. The volume of searches has risen by over 400% since 2004 – 2008:

 

Many companies are not waiting on the sidelines. They are well aware of the recent trends, and the number of times that the word “avocado” has been mentioned in company filings proves it. (See below).

There are numerous companies exposed to the growing popularity of the avocado. Del Monte produces and markets several avocado products, while Limoneira claims to be one of the leading producers of avocado in the Americas. In the restaurant segments, more and more companies use it as an ingredient in their recipes. Del Taco Restaurants even mentions avocado in the company’s About section on every press release:

Consumers’ changing tastes are not just reflected in the growing or falling popularity of specific foods, but also in changing consumption habits when it comes to where to eat and when to eat. The way people eat and relax across the world is evolving, and the growing popularity of brunch is a clear example of that.

Document hits confirm that the brunch boom is a trend that many companies have been riding for several years now:

Based on the number of times that the word “brunch” has been mentioned in filings and transcripts, the most active companies in the brunch space seem to be Brazilian steakhouse chain Fogo de Chao, The Cheesecake Factory, and Brinker International. Even hospitality chain Marriott International has tried to take advantage of the new trend by offering several brunch options to its customers.

Speaking of how and where, we can’t avoid mentioning the constant growth of street food concepts. Street food’s growth is rampant. Even Michelin has recognized street food in its Hong Kong guide, and even two Singapore street-food hawkers have each received one Michelin star. The street food concept is loved by companies that want low-risk ways to test a new restaurant concept or food offering before committing to larger investments.

Look at how the number of mentions of “street food” in company-related documents and transcripts has boomed since 2013:

It is also a reflection of the growing interest from customers:

Street food combines the pleasure of eating tasty food with an important experience component, and it’s highly shareable, as the growing number of Twitter mentions indicates:

 

Sentieo’s tools help us identify, analyze and compare industry trends quickly and effectively. We used Document Search and alternative data from Mosaic to analyze these interesting trends in the food industry, a segment of the consumer space that is experiencing significant changes due to increasing health consciousness, changing consumption habits, and the rising adoption of specific diets for ethical reasons.

However, Sentieo’s tools can be used to run ad-hoc searches on a virtually unlimited number of topics, allowing us to gain important insights into any industry that are not available anywhere else. Stay tuned for the upcoming Part 3 of our Trending Foods Series!

From Crypto to Interest Rates: A Sentiment Analysis of Q1 2018 Earnings Calls

Today we published our quarterly Sentiment Analysis Report, which summarizes last quarter’s top keyword searches and provides detailed sentiment analysis across all industries. We used Sentieo’s Transcript Sentiment Analysis feature to analyze earnings call transcripts and discover which topics companies discussed the most last quarter, versus the same quarter in 2017.

We also compared the sentiment of management and analyst sections of transcripts, and graphed these data points so you can easily see trends or discrepancies between the two. We publish these reports every quarter, so you can stay updated on information that could impact your investment decisions this year. Here are some interesting themes that came up in our research:

 

Sentiment Analysis

Management versus investor sentiment is diverging.

Our sentiment analysis on transcripts shows that a decoupling is taking hold between the language from company management and market participants. Management continues to be upbeat during earning calls and presentations, while sell-side analysts and investors are taking a more cautious stance. To learn more, download the full, free report.

 

Keyword Mentions

Two themes we look at closely in this report are Cryptocurrency and Trade Tariffs. When analyzing the number of mentions of crypto by company, the companies that are leading the conversation are currently Nvidia (crypto chip vendor), Visa (payment company), CBOE (professional crypto derivatives exchange), and Salesforce (CRM and enterprise SaaS vendor). 

Talks of trade wars have unsurprisingly become central to many companies, with a marked edge towards uncertainty, caution and even fear for the effect it will have on business. Read more on page 4 of the report.

With these quarterly reports, we are starting down the path of quantifying linguistic data. This report is a real use case of the exciting new features we recently released, like our Transcript Sentiment Report function, which is part of Sentieo Document Search.

Below is a sneak peek of the report: a sample page about cryptocurrency.

To learn more about the companies, industries, and regions where crypto and other themes are being most discussed, download the full report, which covers this sector and many more. To find out more about how to run your own sentiment analysis with Sentieo, sign up here for a free trial.

What Is GDPR, Which Companies Are Talking About It, and Why?

You’ve probably been hearing a lot about the GDPR, or General Data Protection Regulation, over the past few months. If you haven’t, it’s very likely you have at least been receiving a few emails about privacy policy updates from the software products that you use. If you’ve been researching GDPR, you may have even noticed that the official GDPR site has been so overloaded with visits that it has slowed and sometimes even become unreachable.

So what’s all the fuss about? In this post, we’ll explain why.

What Is GDPR?

GDPR is the European Union’s new data privacy law that was written to further ensure the transparency of companies’ data collection and privacy. It has specifications for businesses around how they handle personal data such as user email addresses and phone numbers. GDPR is only really supposed to apply to the EU and EU residents, but because so many companies do business in Europe, American companies must also show that they are also GDPR compliant — all by today, when the law is officially implemented.

American companies have been updating their privacy policies and explaining, at the very  least, how they:

  • Capture, use, store, and secure user / customer data
  • Capture and use cookie data
  • Capture and use location/mobile data
  • Share user data with company employees, partners and third parties, if applicable
  • Obtain user consent to receive marketing communications

We decided to deep dive into how companies are talking about GDPR and the necessary compliance preparations. We used Sentieo’s DocSearch to search for mentions of GDPR across SEC filings, call transcripts, press releases, presentations, and global filings. We can see below that mentions have definitely escalated over the last two years, especially as we got closer and closer to the date of implementation: May 25, 2018.

 

Sentieo

We also see that there was an initial spike shortly after European Parliament adopted the regulation on April 14th, 2016. GDPR has been in progress for the past 6 years, as the timeline below shows:

  • January 25th, 2012: GDPR proposal released.
  • October 21, 2013: The European Parliament Committee on Civil Liberties, Justice and Home Affairs (LIBE) has orientation vote.
  • December 15, 2015: Negotiations between the European Parliament, Council and Commission (Formal Trilogue meeting) result in  joint proposal.
  • December 17, 2015: European Parliament’s LIBE Committee voted for negotiations between the three parties.
  • April 8, 2016: Adoption by Council of the European Union
  • April 14, 2016: Adoption by the European Parliament.
  • May 24, 2016: Regulation entered into force, 20 days after its publication in the Official Journal of the European Union.
  • May 25, 2018: Its provisions are directly applicable in all member states.

(source: Wikipedia)

We took a closer look at the companies with the most mentions of GDPR. The top five companies included Varonis and Talend, which are both companies that offer data-centric services. Varonis (VRNS) is a leader in data security and analytics, focused on protecting enterprise data. Thus, the GDPR mentions in its documents often refer to the products it provides to prepare its customers for GDPR.

Talend (TLND), a software integration vendor, also heavily referenced GDPR during its May 10th earnings call. Michael Tuchen, Talend’s CEO & Director even mentioned that Talend would even be “assisting Virgin Money UK with meeting regulatory requirements, including the EU’s GDPR.”

IBM had the third-most mentions of GDPR in its documents, and has even conducted a study on the subject: Majority of Businesses View GDPR As Opportunity to Improve Data Privacy and Security. Here is part of their press release about the study that came up in our search:

Last year, IBM itself also began to offer solutions to help their customers become more compliant with data regulations. Here is part of a June 2017 press release detailing those solutions:

 

 

GDPR is definitely inspiring organizations to more closely examine their data policies, especially in light of Facebook’s data breach and consumers’ increased understanding of privacy. We anticipate that most businesses will view data transparency as an essential part of their future strategies. This goal of transparency has allowed for some businesses like Varonis, Talend, and IBM to offer up specific compliance solutions for this use case, since compliance can be a complex process for most organizations without the right support. On the other hand, B2B companies in the software and targeted advertising businesses that derive a significant proportion of their revenues from the EU may face challenges from the GDPR.

As we’ve seen with the example of Facebook, non-compliance and cloudy communication can result not only in legal struggles, but also become a public relations nightmare with which no organization wants to be associated.

Earnings Guide Part 2 : Using Sentieo’s Alternative Data to Predict This Week’s Earnings Announcements

Note: The content of this post references an opinion and is for information purposes only. It is not intended to be investment advice. Seek a duly licensed professional for investment advice.

With earnings season continuing this week, the Sentieo team has been making their predictions about earnings using alternative data from Sentieo Mosaic. Last earnings season, the team accurately predicted the Netflix, Snapchat, Twitter, Skechers, Grubhub, Trupanion, and Hubspot beats.

Our Methodology: Why Does This Data Predict Earnings?

In the graphs below, we are presenting Quarterly YoY growth in Google Trends, Website Visits (Alexa Panel), and Twitter Mentions. In all cases, we have compared the data against quarterly revenue growth. Alternative datasets like these are offered in the Sentieo platform and can provide an edge in analyzing consumer-facing businesses, as they often have a high correlation with revenue growth and are available ahead of traditional financial metrics for the period. As consumer behavior shifts more and more towards digital, indicators like these have become more predictive of tech and consumer company results. Below each chart is a link to the interactive version of the graph.

Here’s what we’re thinking for Floor & Decor:

 

FND – Floor & Decor Holdings (Call on Thursday, May 3, 2018)

 

Floor & Decor Holdings is a leading specialty retailer in the hard surface flooring market, selling tile, wood, and other accessories at low prices. The company was founded in 2000 and is headquartered in Atlanta.

We used Sentieo Mosaic to analyze alternative data for the brand, plotting it in the chart below. The chart shows that Google Trends (green line) and Alexa Website Visits (red line) have historically correlated with FND’s revenue growth; both datasets caught major revenue growth inflections in early and late 2017. For Q1 2018, Google Trends decelerated, but has leveled off more recently, while Alexa data has moved sideways in the face of an expected revenue deceleration from analyst estimates.

View Interactive Chart: http://snt.io/VW5jpdqoc

 

The Google Trends data below shows that business is growing nicely for FND. The top blue line represents Google Trends data for 2018, and demonstrates that FND is hitting new heights this year.

 

FND is a high multiple stock and has moved up a lot since last earnings, suggesting that the bar is high. FND looks like a likely beat this quarter, but if the company misses estimates, expect the stock to go down.

sentiment

Introducing Sentieo’s Game-Changing Transcript Sentiment and Linguistic Analysis Features

Over the last year, the Sentieo team has been investing heavily in NLP & data science. We were very excited to release the Sentieo’s Transcript Intelligence Report, which is the first of many features built on a powerful new technology that lets us dissect documents and help you find insight.

There is signifcant amount of academic research that supports the idea that changes in sentiment among those in company management, as well as those working as analysts, do indeed have some relationship with stock returns.

Management is typically a negative predictor of stock returns. When management seems overly excited about the future, this may indicate that the stock will underperform. (See “Manager Sentiment and Stock Returns,” Journal of Financial Economics). On the other hand, when investor sentiment is low, subsequent returns are relatively high on a subset of stocks (high volatility stocks, unprofitable stocks, non-dividend-paying stocks, extreme-growth stocks, and distressed stocks), consistent with an initial underpricing of these stocks. (See “Investor Sentiment in the Stock Market,” Journal of Economic Perspectives).

Our Transcript Intelligence Report provides automatic analysis on how sentiment and keywords for a given company have changed across quarters. The analysis easily splits out Management Sentiment vs. Analyst Sentiment. Let’s use Netflix as our example.

First, we open up Sentieo Document Search and search for Netflix transcripts. We choose a transcript in the left hand navigation, and see a “View Linguistic Intelligence Report” button at the top of the document in the right hand pane.

sentiment

 

 

We’re taken to the full Transcript Analysis page, and can now dive into the analysis!

sentiment

 

Sentiment Scores

Sentiment scores are generated by tagging each word in the document as positive, negative, or neutral using a dictionary designed for financial documents and applying a formula to generate a score for each section. The formula for sentiment is below:

The number (typically a decimal value below 0.1) is a percentage that should be considered on a relative basis, rather than absolute.

Management Sentiment

The following chart shows sentiment for Management commentary and Q&A answers on eight quarters of earnings calls. Sentiment is calculated as positive word % of total words – negative word % of total words.

management

 

 

 

Analyst Sentiment

The following chart shows sentiment for Analysts from the Q&A section of eight quarters of earnings calls. Sentiment is calculated as positive word % of total words – negative word % of total words.

 

 

 

Management-Analyst Sentiment Spread

The following chart shows the historical spread between Management and Analyst sentiment.

The spread between the two would suggest divergences in sentiment. For example, if the spread turned negative, then it is possible that management has turned less bullish while analysts have remained bullish, thereby signaling the potential for management to disappoint in future periods.

 

 

 

Conference Calls Sequential Comparison Word Cloud

The comparison word cloud shows the biggest changes in average keyword frequency between the 2018-04-16 conference call and the 2018-01-22 conference call for NFLX.*

 

 

 

 

Analyst vs Management: Keyword Differences

This is another comparison cloud showing the major average differences between management and analyst keywords on the 2018-04-16 conference call.

 

Management Top 15 Keywords

This table shows the top 15 keywords by frequency referenced in the past eight quarters of earnings calls. This provides a visual view at a glance into what is being discussed on the earnings calls over time.

 

 

 

Analysts Top 15 Keywords

 

 

 

Sign up for a free trial of Sentieo to get the sentiment report for Netflix and any other ticker you follow.

Sentieo Earnings Guide: Using Sentieo’s Alternative Data to Predict This Week’s Earnings Announcements

Note: The content of this post references an opinion and is for information purposes only. It is not intended to be investment advice. Seek a duly licensed professional for investment advice.

With earnings season starting this week, the Sentieo team has been making their predictions about earnings using alternative data from Sentieo Mosaic. Last earnings season, the team accurately predicted the Netflix, Snapchat, Twitter, Skechers, Grubhub, Trupanion, and Hubspot beats.

Our Methodology: Why Does This Data Predict Earnings?

In the graphs below, we are presenting Quarterly YoY growth in Google Trends, Website Visits (Alexa Panel), and Twitter Mentions. In all cases, we have compared the data against quarterly revenue growth. Alternative datasets like these are offered in the Sentieo platform and can provide an edge in analyzing consumer-facing businesses, as they often have a high correlation with revenue growth and are available ahead of traditional financial metrics for the period. As consumer behavior shifts more and more towards digital, indicators like these have become more predictive of tech and consumer company results. Below each chart is a link to the interactive version of the graph.

Here’s what we’re thinking for upcoming calls:

SKX – Skechers (Thursday April 19th, After-Market)

We took a look at the international lifestyle and footwear brand Skechers last season, and predicted a beat. Currently, consensus is calling for $SKX YoY Revenue Growth to decelerate from 27% in Q4 to 12% for Q1 (dotted black line below). Google Trends data (green line), which has shown a great historical correlation to revenue growth, is actually accelerating for Q1 and suggests a revenue beat. Alexa Panel Website Visits (red line) also showed an acceleration during Q1.

http://snt.io/nT54NKK7U

Last quarter, SKX posted a huge beat on international wholesale revenues, which we called correctly. The blue line below represents $SKX’s International Google Trends, which showed a large Q4 acceleration. (Zoom in on the area inside the red box). Consensus was expecting a wholesale revenue growth deceleration to 23% (pink), but ended up reporting a huge beat of 40.1% growth (black) — just as the Google Trends data predicted.

http://snt.io/qG54RU4gM

This time around, we find ourselves in a similar situation. Consensus is calling for a large wholesale revenue growth deceleration (black line below), but the International Google Trends (blue line) still shows a very high growth rate, suggesting consensus is too low here.

http://snt.io/TQ54Rj4cF

crypto interest rates Sentieo

From Crypto to Interest Rates: A Sentiment Analysis of Q1 2018 Earnings Calls

Today we’ve published our second Sentiment Analysis Report, which summarizes last quarter’s top keyword searches and provides detailed sentiment analysis across all industries. We used Sentieo’s brand new Transcript Sentiment Analysis feature to analyze earnings call transcripts and discover which topics companies discussed the most last quarter, versus the same quarter in 2017. (See our previous report here).

We also compared the sentiment of management and analyst sections of transcripts, and graphed these data points so you can easily see trends or discrepancies between the two. We publish these reports every quarter, so you can stay updated on information that could impact your investment decisions this year. Here are some interesting themes that came up in our research:

 

Sentiment Analysis

Management versus investor sentiment is diverging.

Our sentiment analysis on transcripts shows that a decoupling is taking hold between the language from company management and market participants. Management continues to be upbeat during earning calls and presentations, while sell-side analysts and investors are taking a more cautious stance. To learn more, download the full, free report.

 

Keyword Mentions

Two substantial highlights from the various themes we cover in this report are related to cryptocurrency and Trump.

While mentions of crypto have continued to ramp up, two companies in particular had a surge in references: IBM and Overstock.com.

IBM, with its Watson program and early involvement in the emerging fintech scene, is a recurring leader in the category. What’s new is that as concepts are maturing, bigger and more influential ecosystem players are now making moves: IBM recently revealed that it has been meeting with executives from commodities trading platforms, large corporations, and perhaps most importantly, central banks, to explore cryptocurrencies and blockchain in their operating models. (CoinDesk)

Overstock.com also made the headlines as possibly the first $1bn+ listed company dipping into crypto funding with an ICO (Initial Coin Offering). The stock fell sharply year to date (-40%), in part in reaction to the Securities and Exchange Commission starting an investigation on Overstock.com’s subsidiary that did the ICO. (Investopedia)

With this report, we are starting down the path of quantifying linguistic data. This report is a real use case of the exciting new features we recently released, like our Transcript Sentiment Report function, which is part of Sentieo Document Search.

Below is a sneak peek of the report: a sample page about the information technology sector.

To learn more about the companies, industries, and regions where crypto and other themes are being most discussed, download the full report, which covers this sector and many more. To find out more about how to run your own sentiment analysis with Sentieo, sign up here for a free trial.