What We Learned From Redlining Beyond Meat’s (Nasdaq: BYND) Secondary Offering Documents

Meat alternative marketer and recent IPO Beyond Meat (Nasdaq: BYND) reported quarterly earnings a few days ago, and, concurrently, the company surprised the market with a secondary offering well ahead of the indicated 180-day IPO period (a rare occurrence in the last 10 years). The stock’s performance since its IPO has been stunning: the IPO priced at $25 on May 01, 2019, and the stock went up over 8 times leading up to the earnings announcement.

The secondary offering priced at $160, well below the closing price of $222.13, the last price before the Q2 results and secondary announcement on July 29, 2019.

The offering was mostly pre-IPO investors and insiders selling (3,000,000 shares), along with the company selling 250,000 shares itself to fund its operations:

The secondary came just as BYND’s market capitalization surpassed that of a number of consumer staples companies in the S&P 500:

(interactive chart link)

We were curious to read the secondary offering document using redlining, to see what has changed since the IPO documents. Keep in mind that there will be changes solely due to the fact that BYND is now publicly traded, versus the pre-IPO language. We redlined the secondary S-1/A filed on July 31, 2019, against the final IPO S-1/A from April 29, 2019.

 

Here are our notes:

1) Stunning distribution and sales growth, along with successful partnerships and major increases in media impressions:

 

2) Expanding distribution in Europe and growing product lines:

 

 

3) Since the company is now publicly traded, there is a new warning around stock price volatility and potential losses:

 

4) Certain US states have introduced legislature regarding what products can be called “meat.” We saw this reflected in the added “state regulators” to this risk factor:

 

5) The rapid distribution growth noted above has resulted in some shifts in the major distribution partners:

 

6) There are no written contracts with the US co-manufacturers (note the EU deal mentioned above):

 

7) Big drop in local unemployment in the area around their Columbia, MO, facility warranted an update in this risk factor:

 

8) Entirely new risk factors: the growth will not last forever, and there might be serious fluctuations in the results:

 

9) Negative development for BYND in a lawsuit brought against them by a former co-manufacturer:

 

 

10) A relatively new development in IPO filings is the disclosure of use of Professional Employer Organizations for a number of HR/payroll tasks:

 

11) Surprisingly, the number of pending patent applications have dropped:

 

12) Added language around compliance and internal controls:

 

 

13) As we saw in the price action after the secondary offering was announced, the share price can fall. There is added language around secondary offerings’ effects:

 

14) Since the stock is now publicly traded, there is a whole new paragraph on the effect of research analyst coverage:

 

15) We can see the company balance sheet pro-forma of the offering. Note the increase in Cash and Cash equivalents, along with the increase in Additional paid-in capital:

 

16) New language on revenue seasonality (“summer grilling season”):

 

17) The IPO also lead to a simplification of the capital structure of the business (also note the Warrant crossed off in the table above):

 

18) The company has a small balance on its revolving line of credit:

 

19) New obligations: a 5-year office lease and minimum purchase commitments:

 

20) There is a lot of detail on Sales and Marketing activity (of course, all numbers are up: sales team, promotional events, samples, followers):

 

21) Notably, no changes in the serious celebrity endorser line-up:

 

22) New executive hire and one anticipated Board of Directors departure:

 

23) There is quite a bit of detail around the lock-up agreement (which was waived for this offering)

 

24) The underwriters have the standard “greenshoe” option to sell additional shares: 

Get in touch with Sentieo to try your own redlining!

 

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Disrupting Transcripts: Short Video Example on UPS

Last week, just in time for earnings season, we released Sentieo’s machine learning-based transcript Smart Summary™ feature. In short, we automated what we used to do as buyside analysts: reading through transcripts and classifying information.

This week, we’ve looked at the newest transcripts from Goldman Sachs and Haliburton in detail. Yesterday, we shared an in-depth video discussing Whirlpool: from redlining the 8-K, to looking at the stock price action post-call, to its Smart Summary™. 

Today’s video is shorter, as we only focus on the Smart Summary™ aspect and we discuss UPS. We were able to extract the important information in about 2 minutes.

The Smart Summary™ is one of two major ML-based product releases we had this month: take a look at our synonym suggestion tool as well. Your searches can be a lot more productive with this dynamic addition to our existing large synonym/acronym dictionary.

If you are ready to test out our platform, please get in touch.

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Disrupting Transcripts: How We Used Sentieo’s Transcript Smart Summary™ to Review the Halliburton (HAL) Call

Oilfield services provider Halliburton (NYSE:HAL) is the first installment in this week’s Smart Summary™ showcase. We are applying our newly released machine learning-based tool to improve our own reading while saving time. Below, we will highlight how we picked out the critical pieces of information on the call in just a handful of minutes. 

If you haven’t read this feature’s announcement post, here’s a recap. Smart Summary™ is a one-click application of machine learning that “slices” transcripts in several ways. One of these slices is a broad Classification, like “Guidance” or “KPIs. (See 1 below).

The second slice (2) is based off NLP-powered sentiment (green and red labels). The third application is based on surfaced Key Terms: products, brands, and geographies (3). The fourth and most innovative application is the removal of the chronological flow all together; sentences are sorted in a table view mode, and can be ranked by “signal strength.”(4) 

(1) (2) This is what the clickable Classifications look like for HAL’s transcript:

(3) Top NLP-surfaced Key Terms are clickable as well.

(4) Clicking the Table Icon in the upper right will open the sortable sentence Table View. (Click on image to zoom in).

With this in mind, here is what we are seeing as key pieces of information in HAL’s transcript.

Free Cash Flow has been and will continue to be positive. This is really good news given the FCF challenges in the energy industry:

Directly related to FCF, HAL is cutting back on capex and is focusing on margins:

Increased activity in several regions led revenue growth in the quarter, while the overall outlook is optimistic:

Switching from the full transcript view to the summary view for the Guidance classification, we see the summary at the end of the call: guarded optimism and focus on margins and capex. 

We complete the final review of the transcript using Table View: the non-chronological way to extract information from transcripts. We can see how key sentences on the topics highlighted above are picked up by NLP. Readers can sort sentences along several categories. 

In terms of Guidance “loading,” we see Free Cash Flow ranked highly multiple times:

Ranked purely on sentiment, we can see that the overall business did well in the quarter across several geographies:

Ranking for Products and Markets, we see new product discussions as well as the pricing signals.

Investors can also easily pick up the negatives in the results and in the outlook: large legacy frac fleet, soft pricing seen by competitors, some segments might see revenue declines. 

Reading non-chronologically does not mean reading out of context. Simply click on the Context link to see the phrase within context. 

The Table View is also available for the NLP-surfaced Key Terms. In one glance we can see whether these terms are used more or less quarter-over-quarter, and by whom (analysts vs. management). We see how prominently “North America,” “capex,” and “Free Cash Flow” are featured. An added time-saving convenience is that these Key Terms are click-through: clicking on one will search all HAL transcripts for that term, so you can get immediate historical context in seconds. 

Here we have clicked on Capex, and we can see highlights in the most recent transcript: note how Sentieo’s synonym search picks up various forms of the term.

To learn more about how using the latest ML-based tools can help you and your team be more productive, please get in touch with us

 

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Disrupting Transcripts: Applying Sentieo’s Smart Summary™ During Earnings Season

After last week’s release of Sentieo’s machine learning-based Smart Summary™ for transcriptsthis week we will be highlighting exactly how to use this powerful new feature to ensure that you don’t miss important information this earnings season, and that you also save time.  

The Smart Summary™ tool classifies a document’s language based on several categories such as Guidance, KPIs, and company-specific key terms (like product names) into a convenient, time-saving format. Further, it applies an NLP sentiment filter to highlight positive and negative language. 

Smart Summary™ is the latest machine learning and natural language processing-based tool released by Sentieo this year. We’ve also released a dynamic synonym suggestions feature for Document Search based on our own, internal synonym search tool. Additionally, we added company-specific autocomplete suggestions to our search. And earlier this year, we rolled out Table Explorer, a flexible and auditable tool that identifies, chains and visualizes tables in SEC filings. 

During the next few days, we will be selecting and publishing our highlights from current transcripts to show how effective Smart Summary™ can be in your research workflow. (Stay tuned).

For example, if we look at the transcript from the Goldman Sachs call last week (below), we can pick up essential corporate and macro information (color-coded as needed), under the Financials and KPIs classification. Scrolling down in the Smart Summary™, we see record assets under supervision: good news in green, versus slower Chinese GDP growth in red, a couple of paragraphs down. The full context is right there as well. 

In addition to viewing by Classification group, users can quickly scroll through all positive and negative highlights, regardless of Classification. 

In the Key Terms field, we catch up on Marcus, Goldman’s growing consumer banking franchise. We can see a mix of positive and neutral statements. 

For the next few days, the blog will be highlighting exactly how we’re applying this powerful new functionality. To try it yourself, please get in touch

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Disrupting Transcripts: Introducing Sentieo’s Smart Summary™

Just in time for earnings season, Sentieo is releasing Smart Summary™, a whole new way to read transcripts. 

We all know the problem that analysts and portfolio managers face four times per year: multiple companies reporting on the same day, which creates impossible scheduling conflicts, work overload, and forced prioritization, which then leads to costly missed information.

Analysts might dial into one or two consecutive high priority calls, and then go on to read another four to eight transcripts later in the day, depending on coverage. These transcripts are always read chronologically, starting with the boilerplate language on top, and ending with the analyst questions. 

Until now. 

With Sentieo’s new, ML-driven transcript Smart Summary™, we enable analysts to pick up the important information across multiple classifications, such as guidance and KPIs, while skipping over the “great quarter, guys!” parts. The segments based on these classifications can either be seen highlighted in the transcript itself or extracted, with context, in a special field. The text is also run through an NLP screen and color-coded in green or red, if needed, with enabled clickable user ratings that will continue to improve the accuracy of the learning system. In addition, Smart Summary offers keyword extractions, enabling readers to view text related to these surfaced key terms.

These features empower analysts to get the essential information in minutes, saving valuable time during the busiest periods of the year. The benefit of the ML-driven Smart Summaries does not end with faster information processing or expanded coverage; it also ensures that analysts are not missing important information on their last few transcripts at the end of the workday. 

Below we are looking at Facebook’s latest quarterly call transcript, and scrolling down to the Guidance classification text:

Below we are looking at the same Facebook transcript, but reviewing the Whatsapp key term text:

Another aspect of Smart Summary is “Table View,” which enables active sorting of sentences by the Classification score (ie. “which sentences have the most guidance language?”). This adds another layer of improved accuracy and productivity to the analyst workflow. 

The Table View is also available for surfaced keywords. Analysts can see useful statistics, like whether a keyword is new, or whether it got dropped. They can also see whether usage, by either management or analysts, is going up or down. This type of quantitative insight for keywords was previously so labor-intensive that it was rarely done, and only for one or two key terms at most.

 

How did we build Smart Summary™?

We spent countless hours training a machine learning model on a very large number of transcripts across all industries, effectively automating what an analyst would do. Once the model was up and running, we spent a lot of time on corrections and fine-tuning for this official release. 

Smart Summary™ is a blockbuster new addition to the Sentieo platform that serves our overarching mission: augmenting human decision-making through the latest technological tools. The release is a part of the latest ML/NLP update to our industry-leading Document Search, which now also includes the surfacing of synonym suggestions based on a machine learning tool trained on millions of corporate documents. (We will discuss this in an upcoming blog post).

 

To see how Sentieo’s complete workflow solution can work for you, please get in touch

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The 7 Habits of Highly Effective Analysts: The First 3 Habits

Why Make Effectiveness A Habit?

At Sentieo, we care about helping equity analysts become more successful. It is core to our mission as a company. While we have broadened our purview to finance and general knowledge professionals, we still have buy-side in our DNA. Our CEO and co-founder, as well as many of our executives and product owners, were analysts in their previous lives.

The mountain of data that analysts have to process to find nuggets of unique truths is growing more massive each year, leading to information overload. In the face of these challenges, we still believe there is a role for human analysts, augmented with better technology and process to help them fight off those challenges. Thus, we’ve updated our most popular whitepaper, The 7 Habits of Highly Effective Analysts. Read the preview below, or download the whole thing!

Looking Beyond The Echo Chamber For Ideas

The world of finance tends to be an enormous echo chamber where even ostensibly intelligent participants can get caught up in manias and panics of groupthink: how much of your communication is with fellow buy-siders versus outsiders? We actually found it more instructive to steal ideas from outside of finance.  

All three of the above have similar constraints on resources and relevance to the ultimate research output. Of course, we don’t think there is any better authority on general personal effectiveness than the original Franklin Covey book (The 7 Habits of Highly Effective People), which also obviously served as an inspiration for this paper.

 

Three Individual Equity Analyst Habits:

 

1) Be Proactive: Optimize Your Coverage Universe and Expand Your Circle of Influence 

You only have so many hours in a day. Valentine (book referenced above) and most major hedge funds recommend covering up to 40-50 stocks at most. If you can’t find a good idea — long or short — in those, you are doing something wrong. If you are trading hundreds of stocks a year, you are going too broad to have any edge over quant-driven processes (and probably paying too much in commissions). The only way humans will have a sustainable and permanent advantage in investing is by doing deep fundamental research. Fortunately, we at Sentieo are continuously working on building technology to augment, not replace, the human. The universe of thousands of stocks can be hard to narrow down. Luckily, Sentieo’s platform has a built-in powerful screener with thousands of categories just for that purpose. 

Use Sentieo’s Screener to filter down to the companies you care about.

Once they have a sensibly defined investment universe, effective equity analysis are ready to go deep. Buy side analysts have a wealth of broker research resources at their fingertips, but often drown in the floods of daily push emails. Your inbox is valuable real estate; the most effective Equity Analysts access information on a “pull” basis—on demand, instead of having their time and attention demanded by outside parties.

Analysts should approach search with a specific intent in mind, and gather as many relevant facts as possible. Sentieo enables this by bringing users access to the full spectrum of Broker Research inside our Document Search platform.

Drill down by document type (or even document section) to only get the information you want. 

 

2) Begin With the End in Mind: Don’t Miss the Macro for the Micro, or the Structural for the Near-Term

All too often, analysts get worked up about basis point moves and minor catalysts when they should be focused on the tectonic shifts under their feet. Think beyond the movements of macro model inputs like commodity costs and currency fluctuations. The shifts from major global trends, ranging from “Software Eating the World” to regulatory and political shifts can serve as either incredible headwinds or tailwinds to investment theses that can far outweigh any modeling considerations for the next fiscal year.

Models are only as good as the assumptions going into them, and no amount of Excel wizardry will help if, for example, you try to buy the dip in global mining stocks ahead of a Chinese slowdown, or you seek value in consumer packaged goods while well-funded startups (instead of stale brands) are gaining ground in every category.

Although one should constrain their coverage universe (see Habit 1), no stock is an island. Our platform allows effective equity analysts to quickly get a read across adjacent sectors, to stay informed through plotting market data and document mentions. 

Sentieo’s Search Summary Analytics give you insight into the most keyword mentions by Company, Document Type, Sector, and Region

 

3) Put First Things First: Maintain A Catalyst Calendar and Do The Work Well Ahead

Stocks often run ahead of earnings. It is not an infrequent occurrence for a company to beat, but trade down. This cues puzzled commentary from the Street about the “inexplicable” reaction, while a 30% pre-earnings run-up was ignored. Funds need to be sized up at the start of these pre-event moves, not just the day or week beforehand. The proactive analyst with this end goal in mind should maintain a priority list that includes a catalyst calendar, and should ideally organize their work around the profit potential.

Key catalysts to track include earnings announcements, product launches, and transactions. Sentieo’s Calendar can feed in from a user’s watchlist, and it makes the forward calendar plain as day:

Track your tickers using an earnings calendar in Sentieo, on both desktop and mobile.

These are just 3 of the 7 Habits of Highly Effective Analysts. To read about all 7, download the full white paper. 

 

The Chewy IPO: Digging For Treats In SEC Filings

PetSmart Inc.

The Year of the IPO continues! We wrote about the parallels between Pinterest and early Facebook, we did an extensive Slack S-1 read-through, and we highlighted what Uber and Lyft are saying about autonomous vehicles in their filings.

With a high-profile IPO like Chewy coming up, an analyst faces two challenges: since the company is a unique, fast-growing asset, the analyst has to triangulate possible valuation ranges for the offering as there are no direct comparable. Contrast this, for example, to a quick-serve restaurant chain seeking an IPO: there are tens of comparables to choose from. The second challenge is that the pre-IPO valuation work has to be done quickly so that the team can decide whether to pursue the idea further: the opportunity costs on time spent in dead ends in investment management can be extraordinarily large. Using Sentieo, we were able to pull trading data on active and delisted tickers, as well as transaction multiples from fairness opinions, in minutes, ready to be compared against the proposed IPO price range, and to be presented to the team.

After Chewy’s first IPO filing in late April (latest S-1/A here), we are looking at what we can learn about pet industry valuations — both from trading data and from what is buried deep in SEC filings — in the form of fairness opinions filed around M&A activity in the sector.

Chewy (CHWY) does not have direct US comparables. There are no other dominant online pet food or pet medicine specialists. There used to be two publicly traded “pure play” pet food companies: Blue Buffalo (old ticker: BUFF) and FreshPet (FRPT). FRPT still trades, while BUFF was taken over by General Mills.

FRPT pioneered fresh, refrigerated pet food that is delivered to stores and sold in branded coolers, in contrast to Chewy’s online model of shelf-stable food combined with a large subscription business. After a rocky post-IPO start, FRPT is in the middle of a successful turnaround, and the company is currently trading at around 6.5x EV/NTM Sales and at around 48x EV/NTM EBITDA. Interactive chart

FRPT EV/Sales and EV/EBITDA

BUFF, on the other hand, offers traditional, shelf-stable food. BUFF was acquired by General Mills last year, and was trading at 5.7x EV/NTM Sales and 23.1x EV/NTM EBITDA at takeover time. Interactive chart

BUFF EV/NTM Sales and EV/NTM EBITDA

Since the General Mills-Blue Buffalo transaction was likely cited in fairness opinions, we searched all Consumer Staples company filings for tables that contain “Blue Buffalo.” We found one right away, literally the first result: Pinnacle Foods’ filings around its takeout by ConAgra Brands (CAG) (Full document here). We see that there are three recent pet food transactions that are of relevance to our work on CHWY: BUFF taken out at 25.5x EV/LTM EBITDA, Ainsworth Pet Nutrition at 20.0x, and Big Heart Pet Brands at 15.1x.

Blue Buffalo

Going beyond food, we also took a look at the pet health players. There are three segments that we looked at: pet/animal pharmaceuticals, pet hospitals, and pet health insurance. There are US publicly traded companies in the pharmaceutical and the insurance space.

On the pharma side, we took a look at Idexx Laboratories (IDXX), Zoetis (ZTS), Elanco Animal Health (ELAN), and Phibro Animal Health (PAHC). We can see that the median animal pharma name is trading at 20.4x NTM EV/EBITDA.

Comparable Analysis

There is one US/Canadian pet health insurer trading publicly: Trupanion (TRUP). While pet insurance belongs in the property insurance category, TRUP has been trading more in line with software names, and less so with P&C insurers, which has resulted in a lot of short-seller activity, including published reports and an increased short position as a percent of float. Interactive chart

Trupanion (TRUP)

On the veterinary side, we searched through corporate filings for tables containing VCA (old ticker “WOOF”), a marquee $10 bn transaction. We found a detailed fairness opinion in the filings of Abaxis (ABAX), acquired by Zoetis (ZTS, mentioned above). We see that precedent transactions in the veterinary distribution and the veterinary hospital sectors have been done at 14.5x-15.0x LTM EBITDA multiples. See full filing.

VCA (old ticker “WOOF”)

Finally, we also know that Chewy is currently owned by physical pet retailer PetSmart (old ticker “PETM”). PetSmart itself was public, and was taken private in early 2015. We see that the comparables on file from that time look at physical retailer comparables to arrive at a median 9.7x LTM EBITDA. Full filing here.

Petsmart, Inc.

If you are interested in how Sentieo’s integrated research platform can make you and your team more productive, please get in touch with us.

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How to Use Sentieo Plotter to Visualize Both Financial and Non-Financial Metrics To Gain Insights Quickly

Plotter is one of the main modules of the Sentieo integrated research platform. Here are some of Plotter’s benefits:

  • Customizable visualization of financials and non-financial data (such as web traffic, sentiment, document search counts, FRED macro series)
  • Statistical overlays — such as means, moving averages, standard deviations and correlations — in 3 or less clicks
  • Relationship creation between series, such as market-cap weighted P/Es
  • The ability to upload one’s own datasets, as well as download any dataset
  • The ability to save and share one’s work using a public viewer link, internal messaging, and email
  • The ability to add charts to a note or to a formatted thesis write-up

Below, we will demonstrate a few uses for this very versatile tool.

Here is a simple combination of financial, valuation and non-financial data. As you probably know, Sentieo has NLP-based sentiment analysis for quarterly transcripts as a standard feature. This sentiment analysis can be accessed not just inside the transcripts themselves, but also in our Plotter and in our Screener.

Below we have plotted management sentiment from the Stamps.com quarterly calls, against the stock price and a rolling next twelve months price-to-earnings ratio (NTM PE). We can see that the sentiment decline preceded the drop in the stock price and the contraction in valuation. Interactive chart: http://snt.io/A8F2E6Hqk

In this chart, we have created a custom web traffic “market share” for Align Technologies (parent of the Invisalign orthodontic product). We combined the web traffic data for the three players in the industry, and calculated the share for ALGN. We also added the ALGN stock price. In order to align the traffic to the stock price, we did a one-quarter offset, and we can see that the two charts align (no pun intended) fairly well. Since getting braces is a large ticket purchase with a lot of research involved, web traffic has been a good proxy for this stock’s price moves. Interactive chart: http://snt.io/99F2E7WY1

Sentieo Plotter’s integration of several alternative data sources make it possible to follow social media and search trends for any topic. This is particularly useful for single-brand companies or entertainment titles. On this popular chart, we have plotted Twitter mentions of Game of Thrones, along with search trends for the topic, AND search trends for HBO. We can easily observe two things: interest in the series has been steadily increasing over the years, with the current season being extremely strong. We can also see that search trends for the “parent” HBO (in fuchsia) are very closely aligned with those of the show. Interactive chart: http://snt.io/KqF2E7oe4

Plotter can also be used to visualize the relationships between macro trends and an individual firm’s performance. In this chart, we show three very different datasets to move from “the macro” to “the micro.” The red line represents the U3 unemployment rate from our FRED Macro integration. The green bars depict monthly counts of restaurant transcripts that mention wage inflation (with synonyms)— just  a one-click export from our Document Search. Finally, we overlaid a four-quarter moving average of The Cheesecake Factory (CAKE) LTM EBIT margin (blue dotted line). We can immediately connect the dots: labor expenses ramp up very quickly once the unemployment rate hits about 5.5%, and the margin declines follow very quickly.   

Interactive chart: http://snt.io/5HF2E7xpH

Here we have used the built-in calculations capability twice. You can see all the hidden data sets by clicking on and off the eye icon or the legend at the bottom. First, we pulled in the NTM P/Es and market caps for CVS and Walgreens Boots (WBA), along with the NTM PE for the S&P 500 index. We then constructed a market-cap weighted NTM PE average for our two-member drugstore index. We then divided the S&P 500 NTM PE by that index PE to see how the industry valuation has moved against the overall market. Finally, we added the 10-year mean and 3-standard deviation bands (both with a single check box). We observe that our custom sector’s valuation has really contracted against the overall market. Is this an opportunity?

Interactive chart: http://snt.io/7JF2E8fBk

Sentieo’s Mosaic alternative data composite index can also be used in Plotter. We can see major and relentless deceleration in the alternative data composite index (the dashed line, 91-day MA) well before the APRN IPO, and the disappointing revenue (green) and stock price performance (red) since. Interactive chart: http://snt.io/3GF2E9Vgb

Finally, Sentieo Plotter can be used for visualizing data extracted from tables in SEC filings with our unique, ML-based Table Explorer tool. Below we have chained the reported income statement for CAKE in one click from 8-K filings. Note both the mini-Plotter preview for any line item, as well as the export to Plotter button in the upper right.

The Table Explorer chains not just tables with financials: it can be used for chaining any tables, such as ones with reported KPIs. For example, below we have pulled Chipotle’s comparable restaurant sales from the earnings 8-K to Table Explorer in one click, and then exported them to Plotter in two clicks (row selection and export), where we can combine them with many other metrics.

 

The export to Plotter looks like this. This dataset can then be saved for future use (such as for comparisons with another company’s KPIs or statistical operations). Interactive chart: http://snt.io/DGF2GH3eQ

Plotter is just one of the modules in Sentieo’s integrated platform. To learn more, please get in touch or watch our webinar!

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